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000
FXUS62 KTBW 170811
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
411 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT THERE WAS A TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CA...RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A WEAK
UPPER LOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
TROUGHING FROM LABRADOR TO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THEN ARCED UP TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE...A DRYLINE WAS IN FAR WEST TX...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC ALONG LATITUDE 30 NORTH RIDGED ACROSS FL AND OVER
MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...
THE WESTERN TROUGH SLIDES EAST TO THE U.S. PLAINS WITH THE UPPER LOW
DEAMPLIFYING AS IT TREKS EAST...REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN
THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS FL TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH IS
REINFORCED SUN BY THE ONTARIO HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC.

THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES WITH EAST AND SE LOW LEVEL...BUT RELAXED
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...THAT GRADUALLY INCREASES
MOISTURE. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER  VALUES GO FROM AROUND ONE
INCH TODAY TO THE ONE AND ONE HALF INCH RANGE BY SUN. THIS MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZES AND THE LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING BY
TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT LOW ODDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. TODAY WILL
STILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTH.
BY SAT AND SUN THE ENTIRE CWA CAN EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...GENERALLY A SLIGHT CHANCE HOWEVER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON SAT AND PROVIDE ENOUGH
ADDITIONAL ENERGY FOR CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA. GENERALLY E/SE WINDS WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HAVE KEPT
RAIN CHANCES AT 30-40 PERCENT WITH THE CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S EACH MORNING AND IN THE MID 80S COASTAL
TO LOWER 90S INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN EAST AND SE
WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH FOE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT ISOLATED POCKETS OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON INLAND.
HOWEVER DURATIONS OF 3 HOURS AND GENERALLY LESS ALONG WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 MPH PRECLUDE ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM RH ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  70  89  74 /  10  10  10  10
FMY  90  71  90  71 /  20  20  20  10
GIF  90  69  90  71 /  10  10  30  10
SRQ  88  69  86  72 /  10  10  10  10
BKV  89  62  89  67 /  10  10  20  10
SPG  87  73  87  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON