Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 260812
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
412 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Only a few clouds decorating the sky and slightly warmer
temperatures across the Peninsula this morning. Meanwhile, tight
pressure gradient between ridge of high pressure dominating over
the area, and approaching trough will continue to support breezy
east to southeasterly winds through mid day. Then, gradient gradually
relaxes as winds shift from the south by the afternoon/evening.
This shift should allow and slight increase in moisture and
afternoon highs climb up into the upper 80s area-wide. It won`t
feel as comfortable as Monday, but not good enough compared to our
usual summers.

By Wednesday, the aforementioned upper level trough magnifies and
travels across the Deep South, while the frontal boundary
accompanying it pushes over the CWA through Thursday. Model
guidance continue to be in good agreement this system to bring
significant amounts of rainfall for portions of the state,
especially, areas in the Nature Coast, as all of the ingredients
line up. PWs are forecast to increase up to 1.70 in., and there
should be plenty of upper level support late on Wednesday and
overnight. The other concern with it would be the potential for
some strong storms during this time.

Conditions gradually improved through the morning on Thursday with
afternoon temperatures dropping a few degrees. However, gusty
north to northwesterly winds begin to push across the Sunshine
State behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Going into the weekend and early next week, area of high pressure
begins to build allowing cooler and drier air to filter into
Florida for the rest of the period. Morning lows on Friday could
drop over 10 degrees in some locations ranging from the upper 40s
north to the 50s south. The coolest night should be Friday into
Saturday with cooler air making its way further south. There
should be a gradual warm up in temperatures thereafter with
afternoon highs getting back into the 80s...perfect weather
conditions to be outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through the period. Breezy
southeasterly winds prevail across terminals but gradually
diminish during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, an
approaching low pressure system brings inclement weather
conditions on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Area of high pressure will dominate over the waters today.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in place for portions of the
waters through this morning, pressure gradient gradually relaxes.
Periods of gusty southeast winds are expected to continue at
least until this afternoon. Then, an approaching trough moves
into the area Wednesday into Thursday supporting showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Winds and seas will increase once again
for Thursday and Thursday night before diminishing for Friday
through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Ridge of high pressure remains over the area keeping warm warm
conditions and low rain chances across fire districts today. At
teh same time, breezy easterly winds should shift from south ahead
of an approaching low pressure system going into Wednesday. Rain
and storm chances increase through Thursday as the front moves
over the area. Behind the front, cooler and critically dry
conditions are anticipated and remain in place into the weekend.
Northerly winds prevail then and should remain below criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  70  83  70 /   0   0  20  60
FMY  86  69  86  71 /   0   0   0  20
GIF  87  67  86  69 /   0   0  10  50
SRQ  86  69  86  69 /   0   0  10  50
BKV  87  64  85  64 /   0   0  30  70
SPG  82  71  81  70 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT...Close


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