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000
FXUS62 KTBW 210118
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
918 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...ACTIVE DAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS WITH NUMEROUS
STRONG STORMS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS JUST EAST OF THE I 75
CORRIDOR. REPORTS WERE MAINLY FOR HAIL WHICH REACHED GOLF BALL
SIZE IN SARASOTA COUNTY. HOWEVER A FEW WINDS DAMAGE REPORTS WERE
RECEIVED OF TREES AND POWER POLES DOWNS IN PARTS OF
ZEPHERHILLS...SEFNER...FORT MEADE AND ARCADIA. CURRENTLY...STORMS
HAVE DIED DOWN WITH JUST LINGERING ACTIVITY IN NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND CEDAR KEY.

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE... NO CHANGES MADE DUE THE ACTIVE DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING SOME FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND STORMS AGAIN TOMORROW ALONG THE SEA
BREEZES.

&&

.AVIATION...LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KLAL...KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW
TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z WHILE VFR WITH VCSH WILL BE THE RULE AT
KTPA...KPIE...AND KSRQ. AFTER 03Z VFR IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
TEMPO MVFR VSBYS FROM PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLAL...AND
KPGD AFTER 08Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE WILL WARRANT VCTS AFTER 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION...OTHERWISE VFR
WILL CONTINUE. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 18Z ON TUESDAY AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND.


&&

.MARINE...CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM FIRING UP ALONG THE LAND BREEZE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  87  72  87 /  30  50  20  30
FMY  70  90  70  90 /  30  50  20  30
GIF  69  89  69  89 /  30  60  20  40
SRQ  70  87  70  87 /  30  50  20  30
BKV  65  88  65  88 /  30  50  20  30
SPG  74  85  74  85 /  30  50  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL