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000
FXUS62 KTBW 141751
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...INITIAL POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NATURE COAST MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING BUT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING AWAY OVERNIGHT.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST ON SATURDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY LOSE IDENTITY AS RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE STATE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SET UP NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO
AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL END UP PINNED
CLOSER TO THE COAST EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND...WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL
DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WELL. DRY AIR WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
STORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN NORMAL ON SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BEGIN THE WORK WEEK NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SLOWLY AND
STEADILY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO A LOCATION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
A PREDOMINATE WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AT THE NORTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 2 TO 3 FEET. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO WINDS AND SEAS COULD STILL OCCUR
BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN AT 15
KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  91  75  91 /  10  30  20  30
FMY  74  93  74  93 /  10  20  20  30
GIF  73  94  73  93 /  10  40  10  20
SRQ  75  90  75  92 /  10  10  20  30
BKV  71  92  71  92 /  20  30  20  30
SPG  78  90  78  90 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...JELSEMA
AVIATION...DAVIS/WYNN