047
FXUS62 KTBW 301316
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
916 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Another quiet morning across the region with mostly sunny skies
and quickly warming temperatures. Moisture remains limited with
morning TBW sounding only indicating precipitable water around 1
inch. However, as the day progresses we`re expecting more moisture
to move into the area leading to isolated to scattered showers and
possibly a thunderstorm. The low level flow has shifted to more
southerly and diminished some so with daytime heating we`ll see
the west coast sea breeze develop and push well inland this
afternoon and evening with the best chances of seeing convection
over the interior and east half of the Florida peninsula. However,
during the evening we could see a few showers drift back toward
the west, mainly into southwest Florida. Overall the current
forecast looks on track with no adjustments needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 915 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Some afternoon and evening showers and possibly a thundestorm
could affect KLAL, KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW, with local MVFR/IFR
conditions possible, then activity diminishes by 06Z. Southeast
winds at 5 to 10 knots will shift to westerly at around 10 knots
this afternoon then diminish and become light and variable later
this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Upper-level troughing will move across the southeast today, with a
slight increase in instability for the Florida peninsula. At the
surface, high pressure remains centered to our east, keeping a light
southeast flow over the region that will give way to the sea breeze
in the afternoon. This setup will favor a sea breeze collision over
the interior late in the day, and a slight uptick in moisture, along
with the increased instability, will lead to additional showers and
possibly a few storms over this region. Lingering troughing over the
region for Wednesday combined with the sea breeze, will allow for a
similar setup as far as rain chances go. The rest of the week really
features seasonable weather, with daily sea breezes and a few
showers expected. Otherwise, we should continue to see plenty of
sunshine along with warm temperatures.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Southeast winds will remain in place across the waters through the
next several days, with a turn onshore with the sea breeze each
afternoon. Overall, no headlines are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Relative humidity values will drop near critical levels for the next
several afternoons, but no Red Flag conditions are expected.
Showers and a few storms will be possible for the next few
evenings, mainly over interior and southwest Florida locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  71  88  70 /  10   0  10   0
FMY  88  70  89  70 /  20  10  20  10
GIF  89  68  91  68 /  20  20  30  10
SRQ  87  68  88  69 /  10   0  10   0
BKV  88  61  89  62 /  10   0  10   0
SPG  84  73  86  73 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Shiveley