Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 211926
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
326 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Active pattern the next few days as upper level trough and
associated surface low pressure system move across the region.
Models are similar in the overall pattern, but the details vary.
Either way clouds will lower and thicken with rain overspreading
much of the area later tonight. It looks like this area of rain
will move off to the east of the Nature Coast and central
peninsula by late Friday morning with another round of showers
and a few thunderstorms moving in during the afternoon and
evening. Further south over southwest Florida showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected throughout the day. The second round of
precipitation that moves in during the afternoon and evening will
be mainly from Interstate 4 south followed by a third round during
late Friday night into Saturday morning as the trough axis and
associated cold pocket, along with the surface cold front move
toward the area. Heaviest rainfall amounts are still expected
across south Florida, along with the main threat of severe storms
where best instability and destabilization is expected. The cold
front should move across the area Saturday afternoon shifting
winds to northwest with drier air returning bringing an end to the
precipitation chances. Sunday through Tuesday look quiet as high
pressure moves across the eastern U.S. dominating our weather. By
midweek the next storm system will be moving across the eastern
U.S. with the associated cold front approaching the region
bringing out next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

VFR conditions will continue into early tonight, then clouds will
lower with MVFR/local IFR conditions developing as showers spread
across the region after midnight through Friday. Winds will be out
of the southeast and increase late tonight to 10 to 15 knots and
become gusty Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

An area of low pressure and associated frontal boundaries will
move eastward through the eastern gulf waters and into Florida on
Friday, bringing showers and thunderstorms along with increasing
winds to advisory levels. Winds will subside some late Friday
night into Saturday with showers and a few thunderstorms still
possible and then increase out of the northwest to north to
advisory levels once again late Saturday into Sunday morning as
drier air returns. Winds will finally subside by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A low pressure system will move across the region Friday and Saturday
bringing showers and a few thunderstorms. Relative humidity values
will remain above critical thresholds, but winds will increase to
around 15 mph with some higher gusts. Fair dry weather will return
for Sunday into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  74  67  77 /  90  90  70  20
FMY  66  77  67  79 /  80  90  90  40
GIF  65  75  65  80 /  80  90  80  30
SRQ  65  77  66  80 /  90  90  70  20
BKV  60  76  61  78 /  90  80  70  20
SPG  66  73  68  75 /  90  90  70  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT
     Saturday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
     Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

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