000
FXUS62 KTBW 151744
AFDTBW

FXUS62 KTBW 151303
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
145 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
17Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR REGION UNDER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE
WAKE OF A DEPARTING LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS RIDGE WILL BE OVER OUR
HEADS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL IN NATURE DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST ZONES THIS MORNING AND IS NOW
ALIGNED NEAR THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH MORE
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND GENERALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS. A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE CONTINUED WITHIN THE
FRONTAL FOCUS BAND ACROSS THE NATURE COAST THE PAST FEW HOURS AND
NOW SEEING DEVELOPMENT EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO POLK COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
REST OF TODAY...THE INTERACTION OF THE SEA-BREEZE AND THE DECAYING
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE
ALONG AND NEAR THE I-4/NATURE COAST ZONES WITH MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY SOUTHWARD TOWARD FORT MYERS.

TONIGHT...LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THE FRONTAL FOCUS IS
COMPLETELY GONE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND WILL HOLD AT
LEAST A 20% RAIN CHANCE IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE EVENING.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...
A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS SHOWN BY GLOBAL GUIDANCE TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON SUNDAY GIVING
WAY TO A MORE ZONAL/WEAKER RIDGE BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
THE WEAKER GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WELL-DEFINED EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH NO DOMINANT
SEA-BREEZE...SHOWERS AND STORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD MIGRATE INLAND AND CONGEAL BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS
GENERALLY INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR. FOR THOSE WITH EXTENDED
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 98-103 THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR WITH SOME BKN CIGS AOA 3500FT. BUT EXPECT TSRA
AT/NEAR TERMINALS...WITH MVFR IN TSRA AT TPA/PIE/LAL/SRO. HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP PGD/FMY/RSW JUST VCNTY. WESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR EASTERLY OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST LATE SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
WEEK. 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY BEHIND THE DECAYING FRONT. THEREAFTER FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OUTSIDE OF STEADIER ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH
THE SEA-BREEZE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA WILL WASH OUT THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SET UP A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN FOR THE REGION THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
PREVENT CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH A NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  91  77  91 /  30  30  20  30
FMY  76  93  75  92 /  20  40  20  40
GIF  74  94  73  94 /  30  50  30  40
SRQ  75  89  76  89 /  20  20  20  20
BKV  73  92  72  92 /  30  40  20  40
SPG  78  90  78  90 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
AVIATION...RUDE