000
FXUS62 KTBW 221832
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
232 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...AIRMASS CHANGE ON THE WAY NEXT
24-36 HOURS. UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA TO GET KICKED INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SWINGS INTO THE EASTERN US. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA TODAY TO MOVE EAST OF FLORIDA INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. DRIER NW MID TO UPPER FLOW TO
LIMIT CONVECTION TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY NEXT FEW DAYS. DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. TEMPS REMAIN AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN TYPICAL
FOG PRONE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFTING THE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AND DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING A GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE...AND AT THE
SAME TIME IT WILL KEEP THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND HIGHER
SURFACE DEW POINT AIR SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AT LEAST THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK INTO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL MAINLY
AFFECT INLAND TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE
SOME TS POP UP ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
BUT ONLY INCLUDED BR AT LAL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIFT SHORTLY
AFTER SUN RISE.  SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHIFTING OVER THE AREA TOMORROW
WILL LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SEAS SLIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION PRODUCING
A TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE E GULF FOR INCREASING NE-E WINDS
AND CHOPPY SEAS FRIDAY AND OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS AND SMALLER SEAS NEAR SHORE THEN STRONGER WINDS AND
LARGER SEAS OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED
AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HOLD OVER THE AREA THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RHS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  72  90 /  20   0   0  10
FMY  71  89  71  92 /  20   0  10  10
GIF  70  91  71  92 /  30  20  10  20
SRQ  71  85  70  87 /  10   0   0  10
BKV  65  89  64  91 /  30  10   0  10
SPG  75  87  74  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...20/BARRON