000
FXUS62 KTBW 181931
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
331 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATE MONDAY AROUND A RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST ACROSS FLORIDA FROM OUT
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT THE SEA BREEZES WILL
MOVE INLAND AND WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP. CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
STORMS OVER ALABAMA/GEORGIA AS LOCAL WRF MODELS ARE BRINGING A
PIECE OF THIS INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
INDICATING STORMS WILL POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. BASED ON THIS HAVE
GONE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND WITH
RATHER LIGHT FLOW THE SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES AND
THEREFORE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES WE SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED STORMS POP UP...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. CONVECTION
COULD DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST DURING SUNDAY EVENING AND WIND
DOWN AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC FLOW RETURNS. DAYTIME HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA...AS A WEAK TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. GENERALLY E/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES
AT 30-40 PERCENT WITH THE CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S-LOWER 70S EACH MORNING AND IN THE MID 80S COASTAL TO LOWER
90S INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/AREA
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AND PULL IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR. HAVE
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF MOST OF THE
TERMINALS...EXCEPT LAKELAND...IN INTERIOR FLORIDA UNTIL 04Z.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN LAKELAND AND PUNTA GORDA BETWEEN 10-14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE RATHER LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THEN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE FLOW WILL INCREASE SOME...BUT STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLAGS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  88  73  87 /  10  30  20  40
FMY  71  91  71  90 /  10  30  20  40
GIF  70  91  70  88 /  40  40  20  50
SRQ  70  87  70  88 /  10  30  20  30
BKV  65  89  66  88 /  10  30  20  40
SPG  74  88  74  86 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...24/COLSON
AVIATION...72/NOAH