000
FXUS62 KTBW 130750
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
350 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND DRIER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY 20-30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON WITH A PREDOMINANT WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO 90-95 EACH AFTERNOON AND FALL TO AROUND 70 NORTH AND
INLAND...TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S COASTAL EACH NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST. SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT NORTH OF THE CWA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE EAST WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH SEAS ALSO
REMAINING GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 2-4 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  76  91  77 /  20  10  20  10
FMY  91  73  90  74 /  30  10  20  10
GIF  94  74  93  73 /  20  10  20  10
SRQ  91  75  89  75 /  20  10  20  10
BKV  92  71  91  71 /  20  10  20  10
SPG  90  78  89  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/COLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE