Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 231316
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
916 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

A few showers now starting to spark up ahead of a  cold front
that is currently making its way through the Nature Coast. These
isolated showers should continue through the early afternoon
ending from north to south. Behind the front we should see a
little more sunshine and some cooler air that will filter in
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low spinning through the Deep South this morning to move
over the Carolinas by 00Z then into the W Atlantic tonight into
Sunday. Complex surface storm system continues to move through
the region with series of frontal boundaries moving over the FL
Peninsula with a chance of showers or thunderstorms through mid
day ahead of todays front before the last cold front sweeps
through the area bringing drier conditions tonight through Sunday.
SW-Westerly low level flow over the E Gulf will continue to
produce a risk for dangerous rip currents through the weekend as
winds turn NW-N Sunday.

Brief narrow ridging to build aloft early next week with warming
conditions ahead of a mid-week upper trough that pushes the next
cold front through the region with a chance of rain. Large high
pressure airmass to build into the region with not as warm and
drier conditions to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 810 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

MVFR and IFR CIGS will be possible for the next few hours at most
TAF sites. There will be some lower chances of rain this morning
but kept it out of TAFs. Besides that expect VFR conditions
through the period with some gusty winds out of northwest
throughout the daytime hours.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak front will move through the area today with a chance of
showers or thunderstorms. Another front will move through the
region tonight as high pressure builds into the region. The
pressure gradient is expected to tighten again late this afternoon
and tonight for increasing W-NW winds and seas into Sunday for
hazardous marine conditions. High pressure will remain in the
region with breezy easterly winds and seas through early next
week ahead of the next cold front mid week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Several cold fronts will push through the area today into tonight
with drier conditions Sunday into early next week. Winds may be
gusty at times but recent rains have moistened fuels in most
areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  61  77  58 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  80  61  79  60 /  30   0   0   0
GIF  80  59  76  55 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  77  61  80  58 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  78  56  77  50 /  40   0   0   0
SPG  76  63  76  61 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis


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