Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 210736
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
336 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

For today, broad surface high pressure is ridging from the Atlantic
across Florida into the northern Gulf of Mexico, keeping fair and
mostly sunny skies in place. This will allow temperatures to warm
back up into the low to mid 80s this afternoon.

Tonight, a shortwave trough digging into the southern Plains will
support a developing surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico.
This low will lift northeast into the Gulf Coast on Friday, with a
preceding warm front moving into the Florida Peninsula Friday
afternoon, followed by a cold front Friday evening. Increasing
moisture ahead of the system will support numerous to widespread
showers and thunderstorms, with rain totals of 2.5-5 inches expected
between late tonight and Saturday morning, mainly along and south
of Interstate 4. Additionally, favorable shear and modest lapse
rates could result in some strong to severe thunderstorms Friday
and Friday night, with damaging wind gusts, isolated tornadoes,
localized flooding being the main threats, although isolated hail
will also be possible.

High pressure will build in behind the front during the weekend,
with breezy west winds expected on Saturday. Temperatures will cool
off a few degrees behind the system early next week, but morning
lows will remain above normal. A weak cold front will approach the
area Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing low end chances of
showers or storms, with the greatest chances from around Interstate
4 north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

VFR conditions should hold through at least 00z this evening.
Lowering ceilings will be possible after 00z ahead of incoming
showers and storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

High pressure will continue to slide east across the waters today,
with winds and seas remaining below headline criteria. An area of
low pressure will develop over the western Gulf of Mexico tonight
and lift northeast on Friday, dragging a series of fronts into the
Florida Peninsula and producing showers and thunderstorms through
at least Friday evening before drier air moves in on Saturday.
The system will also result in wind and seas building to Small
Craft Advisory levels by Friday morning, with Advisory or
Cautionary conditions continuing through at least Sunday morning.
High pressure then builds back in Sunday and Monday, allowing
winds and seas to subside.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Humidity will continue to increase today, although brief periods of
critically low relative humidity will be possible this afternoon,
mainly over the Nature Coast counties. However, wind speeds and ERC
values will not be high enough to trigger Red Flag conditions.
Humidity will increase on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  66  74  67 /  10  70  90  70
FMY  83  67  77  69 /  20  60  90  90
GIF  82  65  74  66 /  10  60  90  80
SRQ  82  65  77  67 /  10  70 100  80
BKV  83  61  75  62 /  10  70  90  70
SPG  78  67  74  68 /  10  70 100  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Fleming


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