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000
FXUS62 KTBW 200822
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
422 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE STATE ALOFT TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY E/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. AMPLE MOISTURE AND THE UPPER ENERGY IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH THE
BEST CHANCES INLAND. HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES AT 30-40 PERCENT
COASTAL TO 50-60 PERCENT INLAND WITH THE CONVECTION. WITH THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH...MAY HAVE SOME
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...AND A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S-LOWER 70S EACH MORNING AND IN THE MID 80S COASTAL TO AROUND 90
INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE BASE
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. KEPT GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OBS THIS MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY PATCHY FOG
AT KLAL AND THE SOUTHERN THREE SITES...BUT THIS IS NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. MORE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KLAL.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE TURNING WINDS ONSHORE EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE ATLANTIC. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY
WINDS PREVAILING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GULF AND
RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS KEEPING WINDS FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
EACH MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  71  86  71 /  30  20  50  20
FMY  90  71  89  70 /  40  20  50  20
GIF  89  69  87  69 /  50  30  60  20
SRQ  87  70  86  69 /  30  20  50  20
BKV  89  64  86  65 /  40  20  50  20
SPG  87  74  86  73 /  30  20  50  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/COLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE