Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 221738 AAB
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon, tonight and Saturday
across the area. Southeast lake breeze will continue to push
inland this afternoon, reaching Milwaukee by 19Z and Kenosha by
21Z. South winds are expected elsewhere this afternoon, with some
gusts to 20 knots around and west of Madison.

South winds will become light tonight and linger on Saturday.
Another southeast lake breeze is expected to develop a bit quicker
than today, moving inland by the late morning hours and lingering
into the afternoon. Some ground fog is possible in low lying areas
overnight.

Wood

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 1108 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017)

UPDATE...

Very warm and humid conditions are expected today, and again
Saturday. Highs today should reach the lower to middle 90s inland,
with a lake breeze keeping highs cooler near Lake Michigan. Heat
index values will be in the middle to upper 90s. Thus, will not
issue a Heat Advisory for this afternoon.

Saturday`s highs should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, again
cooler near Lake Michigan with a lake breeze. Heat index values
Saturday should be in the lower 90s, with some middle 90s in
spots.

Warm and humid conditions should occur Sunday as well, with highs
in the upper 80s and heat index values around 90 degrees.
Southeast lake breeze is expected again in the afternoon.

Wood

MARINE...

Southeasterly lake breezes of 10 to 15 knots are expected into
this afternoon, and again late Saturday morning and afternoon.
Waves of 1 to 2 feet are generally expected, highest toward the
Sheboygan area.

There may be some light fog during the overnight hours tonight
and Saturday night, especially toward Sheboygan. At this time, no
dense fog is expected.

Wood

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 645 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017)

UPDATE...

Still a little fog out there in the northeast forecast area this
morning, so will leave the Dense Fog Advisory as is for now.
Conditions will improve over the next 1-2 hours.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Lingering fog this morning will diminish over the next 1-2 hours
as daytime heating kicks in. VFR conditions are then expected
for the rest of today into tonight under high pressure.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 337 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Today and tonight...Forecast confidence is high:

Decided to put a Dense Fog Advisory out for portions of the
northeast forecast area. Increasing low level winds should help
to improve things eventually. If the fog holds on into early
morning, daytime heating/mixing will get rid of it quickly.

Plenty of sunshine is expected today with southern Wisconsin
sitting under the western portion of high pressure. The very warm
airmass will remain in place today, with possibly the hottest
conditions of this warm spell. Went low 90s most places, but
wouldn`t be surprised if temps creep toward 95 in a few spots
given 925 mb temps of 26C.

It will stay mild and dry tonight as high pressure builds more
into the area from the east.

Saturday and Sunday...Forecast confidence is high:

Upper level ridging will remain in place through the weekend. A
surface high will remain centered over the Great Lakes, putting
southern Wisconsin in light southerly flow all weekend. The
atmosphere looks rather dry at all levels, meaning mostly clear
skies. All this will result in temperatures remaining at near
record values across most of the CWA. That said, given the weak
flow, I do expect a lake breeze to develop both days. This will
keep lakeside communities from getting too close to record values.
Additionally, dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s may set us up for
at least patchy fog along Lake Michigan.

LONG TERM...

Monday through Friday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Guidance continues to show an upper trough moving into the region
early next week, finally kicking the ridge out of here. The GFS
remains a bit faster than any of the other guidance, beginning
precip on Monday morning in our west. However, any support for
precip looks quite weak until Tuesday afternoon or perhaps as late
as Wednesday morning. Regardless, confidence is high that we`ll see
at least scattered showers and storms at some point early next week,
most likely Tuesday afternoon/evening. Confidence regarding the
exact timing of the precip is a bit lower, but should increase as we
get through the weekend.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

Fog in the northeast forecast area will diminish within a couple
hours of sunrise at the latest. Increasing southerly winds may get
rid of it sooner.

VFR conditions are then expected today into tonight under high
pressure.

MARINE...

Dense fog mainly north of Port Washington is expected to improve
within a couple hours of sunrise this morning.

Winds and waves will remain on the low end today into the weekend
under high pressure.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Wood
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...BSH


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