000
FXUS04 KWBC 131842
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 14/0000 UTC THRU JUN 15/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...ERN STATES...

THE LATEST MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY THE H5 TROF THRU THE EASTERN STATES THIS
PERIOD..WHILE ALSO ALLOWING THE TROF TO BE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE.
ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT S/WVS WITHIN THIS TROF NOW VICINITY OF
WV SHOULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION THRU VA..NORTHEASTERN
TN AND PORTIONS OF NC THRU THE EVENING HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
UNDISTURBED/UNSTABLE/VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THIS S/WV WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE..SO ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES..KEPT AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ON THE MODERATE SIDE AT BEST..MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN VA INTO
EASTERN NC.  FARTHER NORTH..A STILL PRETTY IMPRESSIVE COMMA-HEAD
TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTWARD MOVING H5 S/WV OR MCV SHOULD IMPACT
EASTERN PARTS OF NY STATE INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND ESPECIALLY
EARLY THIS PERIOD..PRODUCING A BAND OF 0.50+ INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..AS PER FAIRLY AGREEABLE MODEL QPF GUIDANCE.  AND
FINALLY..VERY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE DIGGING H5 TROF THRU
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND GULF COAST STATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE
AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND RATHER MOIST.
HERE..EXPECT MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES...

THE PROGRESSIVE PAC NW/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN H5 TROF SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MT
INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS..WITH ACTIVITY AIDED BY A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME AND PRETTY DECENT MOISTURE
BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MODEL QPFS PRETTY SIMILAR WITH AN AXIS OF 0.50-1.00+ INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS..AND STAYED CLOSE TO THAT IDEA.


...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

WEAK H5 S/WVS RIDING UP THRU SOUTHWESTERN TX ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE H5 RIDGE AND EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING WEAK CLOSED H5 LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE BRING
BROUGHT IN ON PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO PRODUCE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH SOME MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVIER
RAINS PORTIONS OF THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY UP INTO SOUTHWESTERN
TX.  GFS QPF LOOKED A LITTLE UNDERDONE..SO LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY
HEAVIER QPFS ARE PER THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE.


...MIDWEST...

BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP THRU THE
CENTRAL STATES ALONG WITH VERY WEAK H5 S/WV ENERGY RIDING THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE LIKELY TO TRIGGER SOME INCREASING RAINS/CONVECTION
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST..WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED AS PER MUCH OF THE MODEL QPFS.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 15/00Z
 0.01 558093 559074 560057 558046 556038 554034 544018 539010
      533003 529000 527997 521990 508982 497975 486968 480963
      474959 463948 452936 446930 441922 436918 430914 427913
      422913 416919 413925 411933 409937 406938 398940 392941
      391944 387946 387950 391957 395962 400967 405976 409982
      411989 410995 402007 399004 398006 390009 384012 381018
      374032 369036 365038 360038 352038 346034 337023 332018
      326013 316002 310998 304995 295988 284986 280985 278980
      275973 271970 262970 255973 252975 250973 247974 244977
      242978 241983 241986 243990 245992 255000 263029 265032
      266037 266047 269054 269056 273058 277062 281063 283066
      296072 301072 304075 308079 314083 318088 325089 328089
      332092 339093 344096 349090 351088 355086 359082 365078
      367075 369074 372075 375079 378079 381076 382071 385068
      401046 400041 399039 400037 405036 412039 417039 420041
      423045 423051 424064 427068 437070 448080 448086 447090
      441090 438092 439101 437109 438112 440117 442120 442127
      435142 434152 434157 436160 439165 442168 445171 444178
      444183 446187 452188 460184 462182 464176 467173 471171
      477169 481170 483174 488179 491185 492189 491191 489194
      487197 485204 482209 480210 478213 478217 483224 491230
      494235 496236 507249 509238 510235 512232 513228 513224
      515221 518219 525213 529205 531198 532195 534188 534181
      535173 534168 535160 539150 542141 545138 545133 554110
      556098 558093
 0.01 489672 487665 484661 481661 478665 472678 463693 459701
      453706 444721 442722 441720 441716 441709 441702 441696
      444683 446674 445666 444658 445650 447642 447635 446630
      444625 441620 438620 427622 416629 366676 332712 310736
      298752 281771 276775 273779 270783 268788 266798 262800
      260802 259805 260808 265812 269814 279820 283823 287827
      289830 290834 291842 289875 288895 289913 293930 303941
      312940 314930 312918 310911 310901 317899 325903 331898
      333889 335867 334853 335850 337835 338828 340823 345810
      351799 360787 376770 386762 392757 399755 405760 408762
      413763 415767 415775 413782 409787 406791 402793 395797
      389801 387805 385807 389809 394807 402803 405802 408804
      412805 415805 419806 422805 423801 426799 428793 432787
      438772 441766 448762 453762 455758 459754 461748 463740
      466731 468729 469724 472721 473716 476713 481701 485685
      488677 489672
 0.01 449027 449019 448011 445008 443008 437009 431010 428010
      425013 422014 420014 418018 421021 424025 426027 429027
      435028 438031 444031 447030 449027
 0.25 547062 547054 546048 543038 538029 534022 527015 522011
      517009 512009 506012 500018 496022 493026 489032 487035
      485041 475055 464064 458070 456080 455087 453093 452095
      451101 453105 454111 452123 450133 448142 446149 446154
      450156 453154 459148 462140 463130 464115 467111 472107
      477099 480096 483094 490094 497096 502097 506097 514096
      527087 535082 540076 546067 547062
 0.25 525173 526169 525166 524164 523161 520161 519162 518167
      519172 520177 521180 522178 524175 525173
 0.25 434670 431665 428662 421662 417666 412671 405678 400683
      390696 381709 373722 367735 360747 352759 347766 346771
      347777 350781 354781 362776 372766 384748 400736 408733
      414734 419738 424741 429738 430735 432728 433720 435710
      435701 434693 434680 434670
 0.25 441958 443951 442946 438939 433934 426933 421935 419941
      420947 417953 413960 413965 416968 419969 425970 432968
      439963 441958
 0.25 407023 405021 403020 400021 397023 397024 400025 403025
      406024 407023
 0.25 306830 313808 315802 317794 318786 324764 337740 348725
      351714 346712 333720 319736 312754 308773 302783 297797
      296804 296813 298829 299838 302840 306830
 0.25 330035 328026 324019 314009 306005 299002 287996 280994
      275993 271993 266995 265998 264005 267011 271017 276022
      282026 289030 296032 301032 306030 312034 320037 327039
      330035
 0.50 539058 539049 537042 534033 526027 523026 522027 520032
      509034 502037 495043 488050 476060 469067 464072 460076
      459080 460083 462089 465090 467086 470084 479083 497080
      502079 506077 511072 517069 520068 526069 531068 534066
      537062 539058
 0.50 429683 427677 425676 416680 413684 410688 407695 406703
      406707 407712 412717 416720 417723 422732 425732 427729
      428719 429712 429704 429695 429686 429683
 0.50 430961 428957 426957 424957 421958 423962 424962 427962
      430961 430961
 0.50 380742 378740 373741 370744 366749 364752 360757 358760
      355764 352769 356772 361769 363767 368762 370760 375755
      377752 380746 380742
 0.50 293002 281001 275001 272005 272010 278017 287022 295024
      303023 314026 321029 320021 316015 309011 299007 293002
 1.00 292010 287007 282007 280007 280011 282013 285015 291018
      294016 292010

$$