000
FXUS04 KWBC 161831
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 17/0000 UTC THRU MAY 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CONCERNING THE BROAD UPPER TROF ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...

THIS SYSTEM AND SHRTWV ENERGY BEING EJECTED FM IT WILL FIRE AREAS
OF SHWRS FM THE PAC NW/NRN CA EWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE PD.  GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED FM NERN NV NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HI
PLAINS WHERE MSTR ALONG A SLOW MOVG FRONTAL BAND WILL BE LIFTED BY
WEAK HGT FALLS AND BROADLY FVBL JET DYNAMICS.  MSTR AVBLTY IS NOT
OUTSTANDING SO ANTICIPATE LGT TO LCLY MDT AMTS AS WILL ALSO BE THE
CASE OVR THE PAC NW WHERE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHWRS.

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

A CONTG NWD MSTR FLUX INTO AN OLD BAROCLINIC BAND WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF SHWRS IN ASOCTN WITH A WEAK UPPER LVL IMPULSE
ADVANCING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA.  MODEL QPF GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON
THIS AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NICELY WITH MOST MODEL QPF GUIDANCE
IN DECENT ACCORD ON BOTH PLACEMENT AND TOTALS WITH ONE EXCEPTION.
THE NCEP MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN NON NCEP GUIDANCE
WITH LIFTING HVY TOTALS INTO WI WHICH SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE
CONTG WKNG OF THE MID/UPR LVL SYSTEM THRU THE PD.

...INVOF THE LWR MS VLY...

THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV THAT IS SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE SHWRS THRU THE PD WITH A
VRY FVBL FLOW OF MOIST AND UNSTBL AIR INTO THE AREA CONTG TO
SUPPORT ACTVTY.  MODEL QPFS SUPPORT CONTG HVY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING
PLACEMENT.  YDAS ACTVTY IN GNRL FELL TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS DOING A BETTER JOB
WITH PLACEMENT.  FOR THAT REASON STAYED ON THE SRN EDGE OF TODAYS
GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH THE MAXIMUM RNFL PLACEMENT FEELING THAT
CNVCTV FORCING WILL BE AVBL TO SUPPORT THE MORE SRN PLACEMENT.

...OH VLY SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APLCNS...

LLVL CNVGNC IN  VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
AREAS OF SHWRS WITH BULK OF  ACTVTY FALLING DURING HOURS OF PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING.  MODEL QPFS ARE GNLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO
BUT THERE IS LOT OF DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST RNFL
WILL BE CONCENTRATED.  USED A GEM REGIONAL/UKMET BLEND FOR THE QPF
WITH THE GFS BEING GNLY SUPPORTIVE OF THEIR FCST AT LEAST IN
REGARDS TO PLACEMENT.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 18/00Z
 0.01 487684 484676 480673 477668 473666 469662 465658 461658
      461662 462666 465668 470674 473676 477680 480685 482689
      484690 486687 487684
 0.01 523263 518251 516245 516237 512221 507217 506212 509210
      517220 524227 528228 531225 536221 535214 533208 531203
      529197 529193 526188 521181 508168 507163 508160 509152
      507146 500137 495128 490121 486117 485109 485104 486099
      485083 488070 497051 504036 509027 513018 515993 511983
      507980 502981 499983 496980 493976 493970 494951 490942
      486939 481941 478945 474950 471951 469949 466933 463919
      461909 461900 460892 458884 454875 449866 447864 443866
      441875 438879 433881 430882 427880 425876 420865 414853
      408836 406832 404826 400813 398810 395804 390792 384783
      377778 373772 370767 367766 364764 362759 357755 353754
      350754 345757 343762 340765 339769 337780 338786 341795
      344802 347805 349813 348818 348824 347828 342836 344846
      340854 334861 324872 316883 312890 309895 309899 307903
      308910 310915 314915 320915 320920 315930 313943 312947
      312953 313959 312964 316968 326966 334961 338956 341953
      345954 348955 354954 358947 363934 368925 375918 386911
      399907 404907 407909 409912 409918 409923 411931 413935
      414944 412966 412973 412979 413991 413996 411999 404003
      401005 396007 390013 388018 389021 392024 398025 408021
      423018 429018 434020 436023 438028 443056 429086 426089
      426096 424100 422103 418105 414104 411101 406102 404107
      402110 394116 391121 387126 383128 376129 369136 364144
      363147 362153 368157 370161 370165 372168 374170 379172
      385172 389174 392176 397177 399178 402181 402187 401190
      398191 395192 388189 382187 376187 376191 378196 380200
      383205 392213 400221 403224 404231 401235 400239 404241
      409243 414245 419247 425245 436247 441248 444247 451246
      456247 460248 471252 476255 478257 485261 489267 493273
      498277 504279 509277 514279 518278
 0.01 464698 462695 462694 459695 456697 454699 452702 451703
      450706 449709 449713 449714 450715 453714 455712 458710
      460708 463706 463703 464700 464698
 0.01 483196 484189 482183 481180 477177 475174 472172 467174
      467179 465184 462186 458191 453197 450200 451202 459204
      468205 474202 478198 483196
 0.01 474012 474007 471004 470999 468992 465989 462990 460992
      458997 457002 454003 452006 449010 450019 452021 455021
      461021 466019 469016 474012
 0.01 401046 401042 395041 389042 386045 384049 380050 378053
      375053 375055 378058 384058 387057 390055 392054 395053
      398049 401046
 0.01 329981 327977 325975 316972 310974 308976 303978 300981
      294986 290993 290000 291005 294009 297009 303004 309997
      318993 326989 329981
 0.01 269814 266806 261801 258799 252798 246801 242806 240809
      240813 244819 250821 257822 262822 268818 269814
 0.25 489006 491001 489997 486993 485992 485993 486994 489997
      488001 489006 489006
 0.25 481217 477212 475211 470212 466213 461215 458217 453218
      451222 453226 459227 465226 468224 472222 478221 481217
 0.25 473107 473091 476072 476066 474062 469065 465069 462073
      459076 456078 454082 453085 450091 447093 439094 434099
      432104 429109 425115 422121 416132 413138 408141 398145
      395146 392149 393155 396157 406155 421156 425151 427144
      430143 432152 435156 441159 447158 452154 456150 459148
      462142 461136 461130 462125 464119 467115 473107
 0.25 455926 456917 454910 451902 448894 444893 441896 439901
      435908 429913 424918 423922 422926 422930 422944 421955
      418975 417986 419988 424988 432983 436981 441982 444984
      446982 451973 452961 453957 455951 456947 457939 455928
      455926
 0.25 453226 451221 445219 443214 440210 438209 435209 429207
      429211 432212 437217 440218 442224 445222 448225 451227
      453226
 0.25 418896 418891 417887 415881 409868 405855 401846 395833
      394830 392825 390818 388811 384799 381796 378793 375793
      372798 371803 372809 374816 377822 380824 383828 386837
      388852 385856 384861 381864 376866 363871 350874 345874
      341873 336874 333878 326887 321895 327904 319946 321953
      324954 328953 335946 339944 345944 350942 352940 354934
      356928 361919 367911 372903 379896 383896 386893 387888
      387881 388877 393874 397879 400886 402890 406894 414898
      418896
 0.25 401208 400207 397207 400210 401208
 0.50 452923 450913 447907 444908 442915 440919 437922 433924
      429930 427936 425950 422966 420978 420983 423985 429981
      434978 440977 444976 446974 447965 452952 453944 452935
      452923
 0.50 456105 455104 453105 450103 448101 447100 444100 441099
      439100 439104 441108 441109 444111 446113 447113 449116
      452118 454114 455110 455109 456105
 0.50 363901 364897 363894 361890 357887 356884 353881 346881
      338879 333884 331887 330889 332892 333897 331906 330913
      329921 327924 325931 324941 324949 327949 330947 335942
      340941 346940 349937 351935 354925 357917 359913 359910
      363901 363901
 1.00 446953 445949 443948 439947 434945 431948 429954 427960
      426966 424970 424974 425978 427977 431974 437971 440970
      442966 443958 446953
 1.00 350922 350917 349912 347907 346902 345898 343896 340893
      337901 335907 333915 332923 330929 329937 333938 337936
      345935 348930 350922
 1.50 437963 436962 433963 430964 430965 428969 431969 431968
      433967 436965 437963
 1.50 346920 346919 345917 343914 341912 339913 336915 336919
      335922 335924 335926 334930 336931 339931 341932 342932
      345931 346927 346923 346920
 2.00 342928 343924 342921 340919 338922 338925 341928 342928

$$