406
FXUS65 KABQ 082052
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
252 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

A relatively cold night is forecast across northwest NM, where a
late season freeze is expected. A backdoor cold front will move
southwest across the area Thursday through Friday morning bringing
strong east canyon winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa
Valleys. At the same time, a disturbance will move slowing east
across the region through Sunday, bringing chances for showers and
storms favoring the northern mountains and eastern NM. Daytime
temperatures will be below normal most areas from Friday through
the weekend due to the backdoor front and slow moving disturbance
bringing some rain cooling. A warming trend is forecast thereafter
that will take temperatures back to near normal most areas by
Tuesday of next week. Unsettled conditions will persist as some
moisture hangs on across north central and eastern portions of NM,
where lower chances for showers and storms will continue through
mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

A dry Pacific cold front has pushed through most of the CWA as of
2PM, ushering in an even drier airmass to northern NM where
dewpoints could drop below 0F later in the afternoon. Weakening flow
aloft will make today less windy than previous days, but deep mixing
will still help generate a few gusty winds in the typical windy
areas along and just east of the northern mtns where Wind Advisories
are in effect. Some high based cumulus can be seen developing on
satellite across the west and this will continue to expand north and
east this afternoon and evening. Mostly clear skies and efficient
radiational cooling will help valley inversions develop tonight,
including along the San Juan River Valley so the Freeze Watch was
upgraded to a Warning for the Northwest Plateau.

A backdoor front will enter from the northeast this evening,
accelerating south and westward after sunset. Winds turn more
easterly after midnight, helping to advect moisture in from the TX
Panhandle. While the boundary will push through the gaps of the
central mtn chain a couple hours before sunrise, guidance has
continued to back off wind speeds. Given the SE/NW orientation of
the flow, winds will likely be stronger in Santa Fe where gusts to
35 mph are possible. Divergence aloft associated with an upper-low
spinning over Utah will provide enough lift for the generation of
showers in the northern mtns and adjacent highlands Thursday
afternoon. Instability may be just great enough to generate a few
storms during the mid to late afternoon, but LIs around -1.5C don`t
suggest widespread storms. Precipitation will decrease in coverage
overnight, becoming limited to the Sangre de Cristo mtns where
easterly upslope flow could keep a few light showers around. A
secondary push of the backdoor front begins Thursday evening,
increasing gap winds along the Rio Grande Valley. The upper-low over
Utah drops southward into the Mojave desert, but it looks like it
will still be too far north for an "ideal" gap wind set-up. This is
backed up by NBM probs which only show around a 30% chance of wind
gusts exceeding 48 kts during the Thursday evening-Friday morning
timeframe. That being said, cold pools from convective activity in
eastern NM on Thursday evening could increase winds further.

Deeper moisture on Friday will result in an expansion in the
coverage of precipitation. In addition, LIs below -2C suggest
slightly deeper convection, a few more lightning strikes, and
greater wetting footprints associated with showers and storms that
do develop. This convection will also be the driving force behind
another round of gap winds in Albuquerque and Santa Fe Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

The upper low will be moving east from southern UT toward the
Four Corners on Sunday as winds in the frontal layer turn more
southerly and bring higher dewpoint temperatures further north
into central NM, setting the stage for some afternoon
thunderstorms. However, 12z modeled instability is rather
unimpressive and despite notable 0-6km bulk shear the atmosphere
will likely be unsupportive of severe storms. The best chances for
measurable rain on Saturday will be over the northern mountains
east across the east central/northeast highlands. The upper low
will continue progressing east across the region Sunday, brining
another round of daytime heating triggered showers and storms that
will favor north central and eastern NM. Daytime temperatures
will be below normal areawide this weekend due to the backdoor
front, lower pressure heights associated with the upper low and
some rain-cooling. A warming trend is forecast early next week
with weak ridging in the wake of the departing upper low. Daytime
temperatures will be back to near or slightly above normal
areawide by Tuesday. Sufficient moisture will linger for more
limited rounds of daytime heating triggered convection Mon/Tue
that will favor the northern mountains and northeast highlands.
Another backdoor front may move into northeast NM Wednesday and
provide added forcing for a more robust round of storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Breezy west to northwest winds will prevail across most of central
and northern NM this afternoon. While it won`t be as windy as
previous days, gusts to 45 kts are still possible in the northern
mtns and adjacent highlands. A backdoor cold front enters from the
northeast this evening and will accelerate south and westward
after sunset, eventually pushing through the gaps of the central
mtn chain around 12Z tomorrow morning. Wind gusts at KABQ will
peak around 30kts between 15Z and 18Z so an AWW may be needed if
model winds trend stronger. MVFR cigs will begin to spread across
the northern mtns between 15Z and 18Z tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING IN EASTERN NM AND THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

Today will be the final day of an extended stretch of critical fire
weather conditions. While winds are not as strong as previous days,
gusts to 50 mph are possible through the afternoon in the typical
windy locations along and east of the central mtn chain. These winds
combined with sub 0F dewpoints will create critical fire weather
conditions in eastern NM and the Upper Rio Grande Valley. Elsewhere
in central and eastern NM, elevated conditions will be present
today, with winds being the limiting factor for greater critical
coverage. A backdoor cold front ushers in moisture from the east
overnight. Gusty east winds through the gaps of the central mtn
chain are expected tomorrow morning through Saturday morning, with
the gusts to 60 mph possible Friday morning. Showers and storms will
favor northern and eastern NM late week into the weekend, with
precipitation coverage greatest during the afternoon/evening hours
each day. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies along and east of the
central mtn chain will create poor to fair ventilation Friday and
Saturday. Ventilation improves Sunday as drier air enters from the
west and kicks the moist airmass to the east. Elevated fire weather
conditions return to western NM early to mid-next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  30  68  42  71 /   0   5   5  20
Dulce...........................  24  64  33  62 /   0  30  40  50
Cuba............................  32  65  38  63 /   0  10  20  30
Gallup..........................  27  67  31  70 /   0   0   0   5
El Morro........................  32  64  34  68 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  27  68  34  70 /   0   0   0  10
Quemado.........................  34  67  34  71 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  42  71  42  71 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  37  66  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  32  71  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  46  75  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  26  58  32  56 /   5  50  50  60
Los Alamos......................  40  64  42  60 /   0  20  20  30
Pecos...........................  38  63  39  56 /   0  20  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  37  56  37  54 /   5  40  60  40
Red River.......................  27  50  30  47 /  10  50  70  60
Angel Fire......................  24  51  29  47 /   5  40  60  40
Taos............................  29  62  34  60 /   0  30  50  20
Mora............................  33  57  34  51 /   0  20  50  30
Espanola........................  34  72  41  68 /   0  20  20  20
Santa Fe........................  41  66  42  61 /   0  10  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  36  69  43  64 /   0  10  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  47  74  47  70 /   0  10   5  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  42  76  47  72 /   0   5   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  41  77  47  75 /   0   5   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  43  75  47  72 /   0   5   0  10
Belen...........................  37  78  43  77 /   0   5   0  10
Bernalillo......................  42  76  47  71 /   0   5   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  37  78  44  76 /   0   5   0  10
Corrales........................  42  76  46  73 /   0   5   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  38  77  45  76 /   0   5   0  10
Placitas........................  44  72  45  67 /   0  10  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  43  75  46  72 /   0   5   5  10
Socorro.........................  45  81  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  41  66  42  61 /   0  10  10  20
Tijeras.........................  40  69  43  65 /   0  10  10  20
Edgewood........................  37  69  40  64 /   0  10  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  32  71  39  65 /   0  10   5  10
Clines Corners..................  35  66  38  59 /   0  10  10  10
Mountainair.....................  37  70  40  68 /   0   5   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  39  71  40  70 /   0   5   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  48  76  47  75 /   0   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  45  69  42  65 /   0   0   0   5
Capulin.........................  35  56  36  54 /  10  20  40  30
Raton...........................  36  59  37  56 /   5  30  50  30
Springer........................  39  62  40  58 /   5  20  50  20
Las Vegas.......................  37  62  38  55 /   0  10  40  20
Clayton.........................  43  65  44  63 /  10  10  20   5
Roy.............................  43  64  43  60 /   0  10  30  10
Conchas.........................  46  73  50  68 /   0  10  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  42  72  47  66 /   0  10  20   5
Tucumcari.......................  44  75  47  69 /   0  10  10   5
Clovis..........................  47  78  49  70 /   0   5   5   0
Portales........................  45  79  49  73 /   0   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  45  78  49  71 /   0  10  10   5
Roswell.........................  53  86  56  75 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  47  79  48  70 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  47  78  43  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ201.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-121-123-
125-126.

High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
NMZ219.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ212-214-215-223-
229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...16