548
FXAK69 PAFG 262146
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
146 PM AKDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Very low confidence in the forecast beyond Sunday due to large
spreads in the deterministic and ensemble solutions. The upper
level ridge currently in place across Interior Alaska will
continue into Saturday before breaking down Sunday into Monday. An
upper low over the Bering Sea will quickly progress southeast
across the Aleutian Islands and into the Gulf of Alaska over the
weekend. This will force shortwave ridging north across the west
coast. Upper level ridging will also strengthen along the North
Slope this weekend. Weak embedded energy caught between the upper
ridges will lead to light shower activity this weekend, mainly
southeast of Fairbanks. Beyond Sunday, models and ensembles
diverge into two possible clusters. The ECMWF and Canadian
solutions develop a deep low (near 520 dam) by mid week and drop
it south across the Lisburne Peninsula and along the Bering Strait
by late week. The Canadian is in a similar camp, with the low
further west and not as strong. The GFS, GEFS and NBM are much
weaker with the upper system (near 540 dam) and bring it across
the North Slope mid to late week. Given these differences,
confidence in the extended period beyond Sunday is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level ridging across Interior Alaska will break down tonight into
Saturday as the Bering Sea low moves southeast into the Gulf of
Alaska. This will force the upper ridge across the Interior to
split, with ridging to the north, and southwest by Saturday
afternoon. Southeasterly flow with embedded vort energy will lift
northwest across the interior through Sunday. This will likely
produce light shower activity from near Tok, northwest to south of
Fairbanks. These showers will not amount to much and will be
spotty in nature. Beyond Sunday, there is a high degree of
uncertainty in the forecast. The GFS and GEFS want to rebuild the
upper ridge across the Interior by mid to late week. The ECMWF and
Canadian solutions are a bit more aggressive with precipitation
across the region. Depending on solution, temperatures would also
likely be impacted. Temperatures look to remain status-quo through
Sunday with 40s to upper 50s and even a few lower 60s. With the
GFS solution, temperatures would remain on the warmer side. With
the ECMWF, temperatures would be cooler.

Blizzard conditions continue along the Beaufort Coast into this evening.
Winds remain strong, mainly in the 20 to 30 kt range, with
visibilities dropping to under  mile. These conditions look to
improve tonight into Saturday morning. Onshore northeasterly flow
will continue through Monday with areas of fog, low stratus and
periods of light snow continuing. Temperatures will remain cold
with teens along the coast, to lower 30s inland. The next upper
shortwave will move across the North Slope for mid to late week.
This will bring increased chances for light snowfall for mid to
late week. If the ECMWF and Canadian solutions pan out, stronger
winds and much colder temperatures along with increased chances
for snow would be possible from mid to late week across the
Lisburne Peninsula.

A few light showers will continue to dissipate over the Yukon
Delta region through this evening, but should come to an end as
upper ridging build across the West Coast tonight. Temperatures
will also moderate into the mid 30s to lower 40s over the weekend
into early next week. The forecast for the West Coast for next
week will be highly dependent on which cluster of model solutions
unfold. The ECMWF/Canadian solutions would bring colder
temperatures and increased chances for precipitation to the West
Coast, while the GFS/GEFS would be warmer and drier. Given the
uncertainty, did not stray way from the current forecast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Relative humidity values along the Tanana Valley will fall from
the 30 percent range down into the upper teens to lower 20s by
early next week and continue through the end of the week. Winds
look to remain light, however, a few gap flow prone areas may see
occasional gusts near 20 mph through the next several days.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ804-805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-860-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815.
&&

$$