Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
970 FXAK67 PAJK 272352 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 352 PM AKDT Sat Apr 27 2024 .SHORT TERM...A gale force low moving into the eastern gulf waters will generate showers for the panhandle. While a wind concern, mainly covered in the marine section, sporadic areas of moderate rainfall will accompany this system. Two rounds of rain moving up from the south look to move over the panhandle, the first tonight into the overnight hours, and the second set of showers, mainly for the southern panhandle, for late Sunday morning. Winds over land look largely unimpressive compared to similar systems. Naturally, due to the low`s position near PoW Island, highest wind speeds are expected around southern and eastern PoW Island, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla. The low then tracks southward Sunday afternoon and evening will yield some drying for the southern half of the panhandle with winds calming. There is the potential for some radiation fog as winds begin to calm Sunday night with clearing skies. Did not include this potential in the forecast due to uncertainty on clearing skies and lower wind speeds as the low moves south. .LONG TERM.../ Monday to Thursday night / The surface low in the southeast gulf of Alaska will move south-southeast towards the Pacific Northwest coastal area by Late Monday night, leaving a weak ridge in place over the gulf and into the panhandle as and area of lower pressure persist over the Canadian interior from the Yukon Territory to Central British Columbia and this situation holding through Tuesday. Another short wave running along the southern side of the gulf and will spin up a weak low ( about 1010 mb at present solutions ) and this may spread some rain to the southern portion of the panhandle, however consistency between model solutions have forecast trending towards ensemble solutions and thus a middle of the road forecast at present. Thus mid week is looking to be dry for the panhandle. && .AVIATION...A marine layer that pushed in along the outer coast Saturday morning moved offshore during the day. However, a system advancing north in the gulf will continue a downward trend for cloud ceilings from the southern panhandle northward and bring showers. The southern panhandle and outer coast up to Sitka will see some LLWS with SE winds around 35 kt with the frontal passage Saturday night. Otherwise expect ceilings for the southern half of the panhandle to 2500 ft or less, especially for outer coast, before rebounding later Sunday as the front begins to weaken and showers diminish. For Icy Strait northward, ceilings likely to remain above 3000 ft through the period. && .MARINE...Currently shown beautifully on satellite, a gale force low is meandering into the eastern gulf of Alaska near Prince of Wales Island. This low will then become stationary through tonight and into tomorrow, before drifting southward. While gales will be short lived, mostly along the NE quadrant of the low, widespread 30-35 knot winds will continue through tomorrow afternoon and evening for the gulf waters. What is more uncertain is the effect this system will have on the inner channels. What is most confident is Clarence Strait, which will see winds up to 25-30 knot sustained winds. For the rest of the channels, what appears to be an initial front pushing northward this evening will cause havoc with wind directions. As the front pushes northward, it will generate winds up to 20 knots southerlies as it traverses, but it appears to break up as it hits Icy Strait. However, from the position of the low, most winds will have a northerly to northeasterly component both before and after the passing of the front tonight. A secondary push for tomorrow morning for the southern half of the panhandle will last longer before transitioning back to northerly with the low moving south. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ661-662. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-036-641>643-663-664-671. && $$ SHORT TERM...NC LONG TERM....Bezenek AVIATION...STJ Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau