Text Products for FWS Issued by AKQ

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
000
FNUS71 KAKQ 100932
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Nassawango-U5...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
532 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on April 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly cloudy today, with a few light rain showers or sprinkles
possible early this morning. A light SW wind early this morning is
expected to become 10 mph later this morning into the afternoon,
with occasional gusts to 20 mph possible this afternoon. An
approaching cold front will bring showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. A breezy
south wind is expected ahead of the front Thursday, with the wind
shifting to west and remaining breezy Friday and Saturday behind
the cold front.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph increasing to 17 to 24
                    mph in the afternoon, then decreasing to around
                    13 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (71900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................4 early in the morning increasing to 61 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........87  85  83  79  76  72  67  62  57  57  57  57
Weather cov.....SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............58  59  59  62  64  67  69  71  72  73  74  73
RH..............86  83  83  75  73  65  61  57  55  53  51  55
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   7   8   9   10  10  11  10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   11  13  14  15  16  19  16  15  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.6   6   7   9   12  15  18  22  24  22  17  13
LVORI...........6   5   5   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............4   5   5   10  24  39  54  54  61  54  56  42
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   2   2   8   16  28  43  59  72  62  48  34
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  FR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (19700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................4 to 27.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........60  63  67  68  70  71  70  69  68  72  76  80
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............72  70  68  66  64  63  63  62  61  61  60  59
RH..............57  61  68  70  75  78  78  81  84  81  84  87
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.13  11  8   8   8   8   8   9   11  11  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.10  8   7   7   7   7   8   8   9   9   10  10
LVORI...........2   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5
ADI.............27  6   5   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..20  10  3   3   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely
                    late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 16 mph with gusts to around 30
                    mph increasing to 17 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 33 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 17 mph increasing to 20 to 24 mph
                    late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (36700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................9 to 45.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........83     88     90     97     100    100
Weather cov.....                            LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     70     70
Temp............59     60     64     68     69     71
RH..............87     87     81     73     69     67
20 ft wind......S 7    S 8    S 11   S 16   S 18   S 19
20 ft wind gust.12     14     19     23     30     32
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    1200   1700   2000   1800
Transport wind..S 10   S 12   S 17   S 21   S 21   S 23
LVORI...........5      5      3      3      3      1
ADI.............9      12     26     45     41     41
Haines index....4      4      3      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4      4      18     31     37     36
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...ZIMMERMAN
Requested by...Gabriel Cahalan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410188.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL gcahalan@tnc.org
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
