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000
FXUS61 KALY 201749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
149 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind a departing cold front, clouds will break for
some sun today, with a breezy afternoon and a few lingering showers
or sprinkles.  Cooler and drier weather will return for Sunday and
Monday, with a good deal of sun each day and breezy conditions.
Milder temperatures will briefly return for Tuesday before another
front returns chilly weather to the region for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Axis of clearing has reached much of eastern NY and will reach
western New England through the afternoon. Upper energy and
reinforcing shot of colder air approaching from western and
central NY, with area of developing showers, will track into
eastern NY the rest of this afternoon and exit through western
New England late this afternoon and early this evening.

Temperatures will reach around 60 to lower 60s in the Hudson
Valley and NW CT with 50s elsewhere. Winds will be gusty at
times from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly dry and quiet weather is expected through the short term
period. The upper level flow will be flat for tonight behind the
departing shortwave, although another disturbance will be
passing north of the area for Sunday into Monday. While this
will keep a broad trough over the area with lower heights and
cooler temps aloft, the main upper forcing will be well north of
the area and moisture is lacking for Sunday into Monday.
Because of this, no precip is expected across the area for
Sunday into Monday. While there will be some clouds around on
Sunday, skies look fairly sunny for Monday.

After temps tonight in the 30s, highs on Sunday look below
normal with afternoon temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Another
chilly night in expected on Sunday night with 20s and 30s as
well. Daytime temps will once again only be in the 40s and 50s
on Monday, despite a good deal of sunshine. Lows will be
continued chilly on Monday night in the mid 20s to low 30s with
widespread frost.

As is typical for this time of year (pre-greenup), deep daytime
mixing and a lack of leaves on the trees will allow for dry
afternoons with low RH and breezy conditions. See the Fire
Weather section below for more details, but dry and breezy
conditions are anticipated for both Sunday and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will push off to the east on Tuesday as
southerly return flow advects milder air into the region. Highs on
Tuesday will rebound into the 50s and 60s, closer to normal values.
Clouds will increase and thicken later in the day as an upper-level
trough and low pressure system approach from the west. There remains
some timing and track differences with this system and also with how
much cold air dives down from Canada in its wake. Regardless, shower
chances will increase spanning Tuesday night and Wednesday. If the
cold front crosses during the time of peak heating on Wednesday, a
few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. The clouds and showers
will hold temperatures down into the 40s and 50s on Wednesday.
Enough cold air may advance behind the cold front that some
snowflakes could mix in across higher elevations before
precipitation begins tapering off Wednesday night. Lows Wednesday
night could fall to or below freezing in many areas, including the
valleys. While a few isolated rain/snow showers remain possible on
Thursday, building upper-level ridging and surface high pressure
should bring a drying trend to end the week with continued below
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A secondary cold front will continue moving through the region
this afternoon, along with a passing mid-level upper disturbance.
These features will lead to scattered shwrs this afternoon,
however, have maintained a VCSH mention at all sites based on
expected areal coverage. Despite this activity, VFR conditions
will dominate this afternoon and also through the remainder of
the forecast period. Gusty west winds of 15-27 kts this
afternoon will slowly weaken this evening and overnight before
increasing again Sunday morning. Fair weather cumulus centered
around 5 kft will develop after the 14-15z timeframe on Sunday.


Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy weather will be in place across the region for
Sunday through Tuesday. While temperatures will be on the cool
side for Sunday and Monday, valley areas should be back into the
60s by Tuesday. There will be some cloud cover for Sunday,
although Monday looks fairly sunny. After a sunny morning on
Tuesday, some clouds will increase by later in the day. RH
values may be as low as 30 percent during the afternoon hours,
although there should be a recovery during the overnight hours.

Winds will be westerly on Sunday and Monday with some gusts up
to 25 mph in the afternoon hours. Southerly winds on Tuesday
could gust as high as 30 mph late in the day.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...32
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis