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000
FXUS61 KALY 200530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring isolated to scattered rain
showers to the region overnight. Behind the front, breezy and cool
conditions are expected for Saturday with partly sunny conditions
and isolated showers.  It will remain mostly dry Sunday into Monday
with partly sunny skies, but temperatures will continue to be a
little below average for late April.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 130 AM EDT...Surface cold front is slowly approaching the
area from the west. IR satellite imagery continues to show
widespread clouds over the area and upstream imagery suggests
these clouds will continue to remain over the area through the
overnight hours, as the surface boundary is only slowly pushing
eastward.

Radar imagery has only been showing some weak returns over the
western Adirondacks, with some additional light showers along
the boundary across central New York. Based off the latest radar
imagery and CAMs (including the latest 3km HRRR), have lowered
POPs somewhat for the overnight, with just slight to low chance,
as coverage of showers looks fairly limited through the
overnight. Showers may eventually develop as the boundary gets
closer to New England towards daybreak, so will keep higher POPs
across eastern areas for the late night hours and towards
sunrise on Saturday, although rainfall amounts generally look
light (under a tenth of an inch for most locations).

Temps look fairly steady through the overnight in the lower 50s
for valley areas (mid to upper 40s in the hills and mountains).
Some larger north-south valleys (such as the Hudson Valley and
Capital Region) will continue to remain breeze through the
overnight ahead of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Saturday, sky cover will gradually improve through the
morning hours, as the cold front continues to move east.
However, skies won`t clear out completely, as the upper level
trough and cold pool move overhead. The afternoon will likely
see increasing clouds and some isolated showers as the cooling
temps aloft and cyclonic flow promote the development of
cu/stratocu. While most areas will be dry on Saturday, a few
pop-up showers or sprinkles can`t be ruled out by Saturday
afternoon, especially over northern areas. Some pea size hail
will be possible from any shower as a -30C cold pool drifts
across the northern part of the area. Temps will be a little
below normal thanks to the upper level cold pool in place. With
the decent mixing, winds will be gusty and breezy by Saturday
afternoon, with some westerly winds gusting up to 30 mph. It
will remain a little breezy into Saturday night with some
lingering clouds, although it should be dry with no precip
across the area.

Dry weather is expected to continue for Sunday into Sunday
night. Upper level trough will continue to be located over the
Northeastern US, although the core of the cold pool will remain
north of the area over Quebec. Another frontal boundary will be
passing across the area, with a reinforcing shot of cooler air,
but this moisture-starved front won`t be producing any precip
for our area. As a result, skies will be mostly clear for Sunday
into Sunday night, although it will on the cooler side. It will
be breezy once again on Sunday, especially during the afternoon
and early evening with gusts around 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly fair weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as the
forecast area is forecast to be under weak upper ridging.
Temperatures on Monday look to start cold, but rise to near
normal. On Tuesday, heights rise and look to be be slightly
above normal over the southeastern part of the area by
afternoon. Temperatures on Tuesday should be near to slightly
above normal depending on sunshine. By Wednesday, the next upper
trough starts to cross the region with a strong cold front
which will likely bring rain showers to the area. Rain showers
could end as snow showers Wednesday night across the high
terrain as temperatures are forecast to be well below normal
behind the front. Cold weather and some possible mountain snow
showers linger into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z/Sun...A pair of cold fronts will cross the TAF sites
through the upcoming TAF period. The first front will move through
early this morning and is only producing spotty, light rain showers
and sprinkles. No vsby restrictions are expected with these showers.
MVFR cigs will be common for the remainder of the overnight (except
IFR at KPSF) before cigs lift to VFR after the cold frontal passage
(09-13z/Sat).

The second cold front will push through Saturday afternoon. VFR cigs
will occur on Saturday with developing stratocu around 5-7 kft. Some
isolated to scattered showers are possible along and just behind the
front (between 18z/Sat and 00z/Sun) and maintained VCSH in the TAFs
until confidence in timing and location of showers becomes more
clear. Showers will end and clouds will quickly dissipate giving way
to clear/mostly clear conditions after 00z/Sun.

Wind will remain south to southwesterly through the remainder of the
overnight at 5 to 10 kt. A few gusts to around 20 kt are expected at
KALB. Wind will gradually shift to the west Saturday morning and
become gusty in the afternoon and evening with sustained winds 10-20
kt with a few gusts approaching 30 kt (especially KALB/KPSF).



Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...Rathbun