Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
490 FXUS64 KAMA 291903 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 203 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Based on current GOES water vapor imagery there is an area of mid to upper low pressure over MN. Upstream is another mid to upper level low pressure system sitting over the PacNW. Over the Panhandles flow aloft is currently WNW as a trough associated with the MN low is in portions of NE, KS, and OK making its way towards the Mississippi River Valley. Flow aloft is progged to continue to become more zonal with increasing H5 heights into tomorrow. The increasing heights are to bring warmer temperatures in the lower 80s today and upper 80s to low 90s tomorrow. For today, a very diffuse dryline/surface trough boundary will split the combined Panhandles with winds more out of the southeast for the eastern half and southwest for the western half. Winds are not expected to be very breezy today with speeds mainly maxing out around 15 mph. Areas in the east will see Tds in the 40s while the west sees Tds in the 20s. A small area in the central Panhandle will Tds in the 30s. Tomorrow, the surface low in eastern NM will move northeast creating a triple point over south central KS, with a cold front across portions of western KS. A secondary surface low is also progged to develop over NE NM with southwest winds pushing some of the higher Tds in the eastern Panhandles off into western OK. A cold front is looking to approach the OK Panhandle in western KS, most likely hanging up just short of the OK Panhandle, but may enter OK stopping short of the TX Panhandle. Behind this front Tds are expected to be in the upper 30s to 40s while the rest of the FA sees Tds in the teens to low 20s. This dry air from the surface trough to west will contribute to some really low RH values as low as 9 percent as daytime highs approach 90. With no upper level support the surface low is expected to remain weak with gradient winds around 15 mph tomorrow afternoon, potentially upwards of 20 mph. Thanks to the winds remaining on the lighter side for Panhandle standards, fire weather conditions are not of great concern. Potentially just some RH driven elevated conditions for the northwestern Panhandles where some of the driest fuels reside. Going into tomorrow evening, a resurgence of surface moisture may occur for the far southeastern TX Panhandle, mainly Collingsworth County. Depending on the tightness and formation of a dryline oriented southwest to northeast, some thunderstorm activity for Collingsworth cannot be entirely ruled out. However, confidence is low at this time with maybe less than 20 percent chance for a thunderstorm to form tomorrow evening. Later into the night Tds are expected to rise across much of the area, with exception of the southwest TX Panhandle. To the east a dryline will retreat but become diffuse bringing higher Tds, while northerly winds in the northwestern combined Panhandles could see slightly higher Tds behind a front with a weak triple point in the northeastern combined Panhandles. Thanks to the return of surface moisture overnight lows going into Wed morning will be in the 50s across the southeastern half of the combined Panhandles with 40s across the northwest. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A dryline will likely set up somewhere in the eastern Panhandles by Wednesday afternoon. The models are not in agreement with their surface depiction of the dryline. Some have it further east to near the Oklahoma state line and some have it just east of a Guymon to Amarillo line. Current thinking is that it will probably set up somewhere in between. At any rate, thunderstorms will be possible in association with the dryline late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado are all possible if storms develop. There is a chance that the dryline may not be active if the cap holds or the moisture is not deep enough. Showers and thunderstorms will then be possible across parts of the Panhandles Thursday through Sunday. A cold front moves through the Panhandles early Thursday morning and the upslope flow along with a an upper level disturbance may help to bring showers and thunderstorms to the CWA. On Friday, there could be a relative min in rain chances, but moisture and lift return late Friday night into Saturday that will help to bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. Another upper level wave will move across on Sunday bringing additional chances of showers and thunderstorms. After highs near 90 on Wednesday, temperatures will be mainly in the 70`s Thursday through Sunday. Goehring && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail with relatively light winds through the 18Z TAF period. Winds should maintain some sort of southerly component. 36 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Have gone ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday across the northwest Panhandles. Southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph will combine with lowest relative humidities of around 8 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 51 91 56 91 / 0 0 0 10 Beaver OK 54 95 54 92 / 0 0 0 20 Boise City OK 46 88 44 88 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 53 97 57 96 / 0 0 0 20 Boys Ranch TX 49 93 50 94 / 0 0 0 10 Canyon TX 49 90 55 91 / 0 0 0 10 Clarendon TX 51 92 58 90 / 0 0 0 30 Dalhart TX 43 89 43 89 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 47 92 47 91 / 0 0 0 10 Hereford TX 49 91 53 91 / 0 0 0 10 Lipscomb TX 55 94 58 91 / 0 0 10 30 Pampa TX 53 92 58 90 / 0 0 0 20 Shamrock TX 54 91 58 88 / 0 10 10 40 Wellington TX 54 91 59 87 / 0 10 10 40 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for TXZ001-006. OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for OKZ001. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...36