481
FNUS73 KAPX 060748
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Little Blue Stem...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
348 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on May 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Some wisps of high clouds this morning should give way
to sun-filled skies at the burn site today. Efficient warming/mixing
this afternoon with high temperatures in the upper 60s and RHs falling to
near-critical levels. Calm winds this morning turn east-southeast for
the afternoon, generally below 10 mph. Inland penetrating lake breeze
off of Lake Huron this afternoon may at least briefly allow RHs to
rise a bit.

Good RH recovery tonight as temperatures cool back into the 30s. Increasing
clouds expected Tuesday with shower/storm chances arriving late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........25 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 7 mph.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......4200-4900 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (347.0).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   3   0   0   0   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  64  65  66  67  67
RH..............35  31  32  29  26  26
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   9   9   9
20 ft wind gust.8   8   8   10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.3
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.9   8   8   8   8   8
Vrate kt-ft.....384 376 395 388 375 347
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). Areas of frost after 3
                    am.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........89 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 6 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......2600-3600 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1500 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (11.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........1   1   2   1   1   1   2   3   4   4   4   4
Weather cov.....                                    ARS ARS ARS
Weather type....                                    FST FST FST
Tstm cov........
Temp............65  62  59  55  50  47  44  42  40  37  35  35
RH..............27  33  39  45  54  60  68  70  76  82  89  89
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..8   8   8   5   5   5   0   0   0   1   1   1
20 ft wind gust.12  12  12  8   8   8   2   2   2   3   3   3
Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.9   8   7   6   5   5   5   3   5   5   5   6
Vrate kt-ft.....331 208 101 24  16  15  13  11  15  15  14  18
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Areas of frost
                    early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........38 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 16 mph shifting to the southeast 17
                    to 18 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1700 ft AGL increasing to 2200-3100 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (21.0-495.0) increasing to fair
                    (403.0) in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........6      12     12     9      28     65
Weather cov.....AREAS
Weather type....FROST  NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............36     43     56     63     65     65
RH..............89     76     49     39     38     38
20 ft wind dir..E      E      E      SE     SE     SE
20 ft wind spd..5      5      9      12     12     12
20 ft wind gust.6      6      15     16     16     17
Mix hgt (ft)....300    500    1700   2900   3100   2600
Haines index....4      5      5      5      5      5
Transport wind..E 7    E 8    E 14   SE 17  SE 18  SE 18
Vrate kt-ft.....21     37     240    495    566    494
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...MJG
Requested by...Corey Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413233.0/APX
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov