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000
FXUS61 KBGM 211044
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
644 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A very much needed stretch of dry weather begins today,
although temperatures will be on the cool side through
tomorrow. Dry weather remains through Tuesday with the next
storm system moving in Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 AM Update...

Temps remained a couple degrees warmer than forecast thanks to
thick clouds over much of the area, especially west of I-81.
Dropped todays high temps by a couple degrees given the
continued cloud deck expected to remain overhead today. It will
definitely feel pretty brisk outside this afternoon when the
winds pick up. The rest of the forecast remains on track.


0245 AM Update...

Quiet conditions over the region with some lake clouds filtering
in from the west. Temperatures have mostly fallen into the mid
to upper 30s across the area, with Elmira and Syracuse as warm
spots with temps in the low 40s. Clouds should continue to
stream off the lakes overnight, covering most of the the area
west of I-81. This should keep temps a few degrees warmer than
guidance suggests as it is not picking up on the lake clouds and
showing better chances for radiational cooling. Lows should be a
few degrees cooler than current temps, bottoming out in the 30s
for most.

Continued NW flow today will keep the cool Canadian airmass
overhead. Temperatures will be cool, with most places seeing mid
to upper 40s as highs. Warmer valleys will hit the low 50s but
with dry air and winds picking up in the afternoon, it will feel
much cooler than that. Models show very dry air in the boundary
later, with inverted V soundings across the region. This will
help transport some gusty winds down to the surface, especially
north of the Southern Tier, with sustained WNW winds 10-15mph
gusting up to 25mph. Surface moisture will be low, with
dewpoints in the mid 20s for most of the day. Had to blend in
some drier guidance from the RGEM and CONShort to get dewpoints
lower as NBM, as usual, was too moist. Another shortwave will
pass over the region during the afternoon hours, but with a lack
of moisture, precipitation is not expected. Behind the
shortwave, winds shift to more NWerly, continuing to push in the
cold airmass from Canada. With high pressure and this wind
direction, fetch across the lakes will be too low to generate
expansive cloud cover. This should allow temps to fall a few
degrees colder than Sat night, bottoming out in the upper 20s to
low 30s.

Monday will be cool but pleasant, with mostly clear skies and
light winds thanks to a high pressure center moving overhead.
Highs will top out in the low to mid 50s for most of the region.
Dewpoints again were too high in the initial NBM guidance, so
RGEM and CONShort was used, which dropped values into the upper
teens to low 20s across the region, which matched up better with
what model soundings are showing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update...

The short term starts off dry Monday night into Tuesday morning
with zonal flow though a shortwave will be digging into the
Great Lakes region. Precipitation looks to hold off until late
Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. With the warm air
advection, cloud cover, and precipitation, decided to raise the
overnight lows from model guidance. As the shortwave moves east
of the region Wednesday into Wednesday night, a deepening
surface low in or near New England will tighten the pressure
gradient with stronger winds likely Wednesday night. Right now
it looks to stay under advisory criteria. Most models are
indicating a cold pocket of air advecting in behind the
deepening low but the coldest part of the airmass will likely
stay north of our region. Temperatures will still fall into the
mid to upper 20s Wednesday night coupled with the strong winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
320 AM Update...

The long term is looking pretty quiet and mostly dry until we
get closer to next weekend. With the departing trough Thursday,
ridging will slowly build in into Friday with temperatures
returning back above average. Temperatures Thursday night and
Friday night may still fall to near freezing as forecast
soundings and modeled precipitable water values show a dry
airmass in place with good radiational cooling likely. Moisture
begins to move in with the SW flow Saturday and with it
increasing chances of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail across all terminals through the TAF
period. Cloud decks between FL040 and FL060 expected across much
of the area through the afternoon.

WNW winds from 10-15 kts gusting up to 25 kts return for the
late morning through the afternoon. Winds lighten up in the
evening hours.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...AJG/MPH
LONG TERM...AJG/MPH
AVIATION...JTC