615
FXUS63 KBIS 090545
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1245 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected Thursday
  through the weekend.

- Confidence is increasing that more widespread precipitation
  chances will return to the region during the first half of
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Shower activity tonight looks to be closer to the upper low to
our south. Thus have removed shower mention through the night. A
band of lower to mid level clouds is currently moving from north
to south. This could continue through the night, although
showers are not expected from these. Made some minor sky
adjustments to account for this ongoing band of clouds.
Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 954 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A few light showers continue to move through far northern and
southern portions of the area, which continue to be reflected
well in going forecast. Therefore, only minimal changes needed.

UPDATE
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A few showers continue to rotate around the low over far
southern North Dakota, and over far north central into northwest
North Dakota. Previous forecast reflected this quite well, so
only change was to adjust precipitation chances a little bit
based on current trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Low pressure that was vertically stacked over southwestern
ND/northwestern SD has become elongated as it quickly shifts
southeast through the remainder of today into tonight. During
this time, the area will remain in cyclonic flow resulting in
continued isolated to scattered showers this afternoon and
evening, especially in the northwest. There remains a low chance
that a thunderstorm or two could creep up into the southern
James River Valley of ND later today. However, the best
thunderstorm potential looks to remain south of the forecast
area.

For Thursday, a quick-moving ridge on a west to east axis passes
through the area bringing warmer temperatures to the region. A
weak trailing shortwave will flatten the ridge and bring a 20
percent chance of showers primarily to western ND Thursday
afternoon. A few showers could then continue in southwestern to
central ND during the evening. Beyond that, conditions look
mostly dry through the weekend as flow aloft becomes
northwesterly.

During the weekend, models are in fair agreement that somewhat
weak upper low pressure will develop over the Four Corners
region and progress eastward, while more organized low pressure
passes through south central Canada towards the southern Hudson
Bay. A trailing trough off the Hudson Bay low brings the best
chances of precipitation towards the middle of the week.
Regardless, the main thing is that starting Sunday night,
multiple waves of energy may bring precipitation to the forecast
area. A lack of agreement means exact details on timing,
precipitation totals, and thunderstorm potential are not yet
known.

Temperatures will continue a gradual warming trend into this
weekend. Highs Thursday and Friday will be mostly in the mid to
upper 60s. By the weekend, however, most locations should see
low to mid 70 degree readings. A cooling trend is then favored
to start the next workweek as aforementioned troughing may
bring cooler air to the region. That said, NBM 25th/75th
percentile spreads remain semi-large (around 10 degrees) for
high temperatures next week, so some uncertainty certainly does
exist.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.
Shower chances through tonight have diminished. Thursday could
see a few isolated afternoon and evening showers, although
confidence was not high enough to include these in the TAFs at
this time. A band of lower to mid level clouds will push from
north to south tonight. SCT to perhaps BKN cloud coverage could
then remain through Thursday. Ceilings for these are expected to
be at VFR heights throughout the forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Anglin