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000
FXUS63 KBIS 230249
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
949 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy with isolated rain showers tonight.

- After a mild and mainly dry mid week, unsettled pattern
  develops for the later part of the work week into the weekend.
  This will bring daily shower chances with possibly some
  thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

The Red Flag Warning and the Wind Advisory have been allowed to
expire. Isolated showers continue to drop south over the
forecast area from canada, but also continue to dissipate as
they move south. There were a few lightning strikes in the
northwest late this afternoon, but the threat for thunder has
now ended. Updated pops based on latest short term guidance,
going from scattered to isolated in nature.

UPDATE Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Strong west to northwest winds continue across western and
central ND. Expect winds to drop off after the 7 PM hour but
will remain breezy to windy through the evening. Scattered
showers will also help to mix down stronger winds aloft into the
early evening. Showers will slowly work their way southward
through the evening. No changes to ongoing Wind and Fire
Weather Hazards. Updated text product will be sent shortly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Strong winds and critical fire weather conditions will continue
through much of this evening as a clipper system moves through.
Some wind gusts in the west and north central are around 55 MPH.
Regrouped the Wind Advisories to highlight areas with these
higher wind gusts. South central and eastern zones in the Wind
Advisory are starting to see wind gusts approach 45 MPH and
could get as high as 50 mph. These winds combined with low RH
will continue the critical fire weather threat into this
evening, and a Red Flag Warning remains. See the Fire Weather
Discussion below for the latest details. Showers are starting to
redevelop across the north closer to the clipper system. There
still remains some weak instability in the north and east, with
some modest lapse rates. This could result in an isolated
thunderstorm through the evening. The inverted v soundings in
these areas could provide for a few higher wind gusts near these
showers or thunderstorms. Showers could then linger through
tonight, while winds ease below advisory criteria. Low
temperatures will be in the lower 30s to lower 40s. As the
clipper moves east low clouds could linger across the area as
well.

Showers dissipated by Tuesday morning, although low clouds may
linger through the morning. Breezy to perhaps windy northwest
winds could linger, especially across the southeast. Slightly
cooler temperatures will be found on Tuesday, mainly in the 50s.
Warm westerly flow aloft, with a surface gradient bringing
breezy southerly, looks to be found Wednesday. Look for mild
temperatures in the 60s to perhaps lower 70s. Further warming
and breezy southerly winds then continues for Thursday with many
areas seeing high temperatures in the 70s. A broad trough
pattern and developing surface low could bring some showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms later in the day Thursday through
Thursday night.

This unsettled pattern still looks to remain through the weekend.
Overall temperatures still look to remain seasonable with
overnight lows near to above freezing. The highest NBM PoPs in
the forecast are currently on Friday, although slight to chance
pops remain through the weekend. A few thunderstorms are
possible Friday, with minimal chances through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Strong northwest winds and mainly VFR conditions will continue
this evening, with strongest winds 00-02 UTC. Later this evening
and overnight ceilings may lower to MVFR heights at times for
most sites but most likely from KMOT to KJMS, with a breezy
northwest wind continuing. Showers end by Tuesday morning and
any MVFR ceilings gradually lift to VFR heights most areas by
late morning. Breezy northwest winds diminish through the
morning. VFR conditions and generally light winds expected by
afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...TWH