Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
313
FNUS73 KBIS 011127
FWSBIS
Spot Forecast for Audubon 3 Mile Corner...NDGFD
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
627 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
We will see a mostly sunny sky at the burn site through most of
this morning, but there will be increasing clouds around the
ignition time of 1200 PM CDT. We will see a mostly cloudy sky by
mid to late afternoon. Expect only a minimal chance for a stray
shower this afternoon (10 percent) and a high temperature around
58. Afternoon humidity will only fall to around 43 percent. West
winds will be relatively light through the afternoon, generally
ranging from 9 to 12 mph with some gusts up to 17 mph. Wind
direction could become a bit erratic and variable at times given
close proximity to the lake.
Rain shower chances increase this evening and last into Thursday.
We see rain chances max out around 50 percent overnight but the
chance of wetting rains will only max out around 15 percent.
Expect cooler temperatures tomorrow with a high around 54 and
higher rain chances, up to 80 percent.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Increasing clouds, becoming mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (41500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (64200 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........30 39 65 78 85 83
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 10
Temp............51 52 54 55 55 55
RH..............59 54 48 45 43 45
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W SW
20 FT wind spd..12 12 12 12 10 9
20 FT wind gust.17 17 17 17 16 13
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 4.1 4.8 4.9 5.8 5.2
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.17 15 14 13 13 9
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..55 54 58 54 64 42
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers
in the evening and overnight.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 15 percent.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the southeast
5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 8 mph shifting to the east
around 7 mph, then shifting
to the southeast 6 to 10 mph in the late
evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........81 80 82 83 81 90 84 83 73 67 64 64
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20
Chc of pcpn (%).10 20 40 50 50 50 30 30 30 30 40 40
Temp............54 53 51 48 46 44 43 43 42 41 40 40
RH..............46 48 54 63 68 76 82 82 86 92 96 96
20 FT wind dir..W W S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..7 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 5
20 FT wind gust.10 10 9 9 9 9 11 12 11 11 9 8
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 2.9 1.3 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.W W SW E S SE SE SE SE SE SE S
Transp wind spd.8 8 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 8 6
Haines index....5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
Dispr kt-ft/1K..24 21 6 3 10 4 5 5 8 8 4 3
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers early in
the morning, then rain showers likely in the
morning. Rain showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................24 percent increasing to 69 percent in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light west winds in the morning to 5 mph,
shifting to the northwest around 6 mph early in
the afternoon shifting to the north 6 to 7 mph
shifting to the southwest 8 to 9 mph late in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 7 mph shifting to the north around
6 mph early in the morning, then shifting to
the west 6 to 12 mph later in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (42100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........70 58 66 68
Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20 20 20 70
Chc of pcpn (%).40 60 60 80
Temp............39 42 49 52
RH..............100 93 72 59
20 FT wind......W 5G8 W 5G8 NW 6G9 W 8G12
Mix hgt (ft)....600 1300 2700 4000
Transport wind..W 7 NW 7 W 12 W 10
Haines index....3 3 4 5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..3 8 27 37
$$
Forecaster...HARGROVE
Requested by...Dan Halstead
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412881.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dkhalstead@nd.gov