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000
FXUS61 KBOX 160536
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
136 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure establishes itself over Southern New England
through midweek. It will bring abundant sunshine, dry weather,
seasonably mild temperatures and northwest breezes through
Tuesday. Dry Wednesday through at least mid-day Thursday before more
unsettled conditions develop late week. Above normal temperatures
return

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

135 AM Update...

* A few showers and even a rumble of thunder for ACK end shortly
* Otherwise...clearing overnight & lows upper 30s to middle 40s

A cold front/shortwave resulted in scattered showers overnight
into very early this morning...mainly across RI/SE MA. There was
a bit of MUCape...so we have even seen a rumble or two of
thunder towards the Islands. This activity will be coming to an
end over the next few hours. Otherwise...dry WNW flow behind
the cold front should allow the current clouds across our
southern areas to depart. So mainly clear skies & diminishing
winds should allow low temps to drop into the upper 30s to the
middle 40s by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

Tomorrow

Very little change in the synoptic pattern tomorrow. Southern New
England will continue to be positioned west of a trough axis slowly
shifting east over The Atlantic Waters. This will continue to
support a deep northwest flow pattern over the region. Air mass will
be a bit cooler than on Monday, but efficient mixing will allow for
another mild afternoon with high temps in the mid to upper 60s. Low
70s will be a bit harder to achieve. Additionally, we can probably
expect some diurnal CU developing in the afternoon thanks to the
steep lapse rates.  Winds aloft don`t look overly impressive, so
would expect any gusts from boundary layer mixing to be limited to
about 20 mph. Overall a pleasant spring afternoon.

Tomorrow Night

Quiet weather continues again tomorrow night. A mid-level ridge axis
will build over southern New England along with surface high
pressure. This should support light winds out of the north and clear
skies allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Temperatures could
dip to freezing across interior/northwest MA with upper 30s to low
40s likely elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Long term

Wednesday

Axis of a shortwave ridge aloft moves over the region with a
shortwave trough right on its tail.  A mainly dry column on
Wednesday will keep precip associated with the shortwave out until
late Wednesday night.  The shortwave will bring high clouds and
filtered sunshine to region Wednesday. This will keep high temps
down a bit compared to Tuesday only reaching the low to mid 60s
inland, and low to mid 50s along the immediate coastlines.

Thursday

Shortwave ridge moves north, while the shortwave trough breaks down,
but still sends some cyclonic vorticity into the region. Mid and
upper level moisture increases late Wednesday into Thursday.
However, PWATS will be on the low side topping out near 0.8 to 0.9
inches. With weak forcing and low level dry air, probabilities for
greater then 0.1 inches of rain from the LREF is less then 50%. With
cloud cover and wet conditions around, High temperature only top
into the low 50s region wide esspically with onshore flow. Winds
Thursday will be on the blustery side with easterly wind gusts of 15-
20mph.

Friday

Latest model guidance is trending drier for the end of the work week
with another shortwave ridge moving through along with drying mid
levels. Even though the chance for rain is decreasing, clouds will
continue to be around with more high level cirrus moving in ahead of
a closed trough over the Great Lakes, and some low to mid level
diurnal stratocumulus. Highs top out in the upper 50s with low 60s
possible. Winds remain a bit gusty out of the south at 10-15mph.

Saturday and Sunday:

Forecast confidence for next weekend is quite low right now with
large timing differences among model guidance. The upper level
closed low over the Great Lakes looks to weaken as it moves east
towards the region. This could bring a cold front and isolated
showers to the region, however, not every source of guidance is in
agreement that the cold front will actually make it into SNE. Stuck
with the NBM which gives 30-40% POP`s for Saturday and 10-20% for
Sunday. As for temps over the weekend, highs rebound back into the
low to mid 60s, but will likely end up on the lower side if rain
ends up falling during the daytime hours.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...

Today...High Confidence.

A few lingering showers very early this morning across RI/SE MA
with even a rumble of thunder towards Nantucket will be coming
to an end shortly. Otherwise...VFR today with NW winds
increasing to between 8 and 13 knots with a few gusts over 20
knots developing by early afternoon.

Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. Calm/light NNW winds.

Wednesday...High Confidence.

VFR. Light N winds becoming variable and remaining light during
the afternoon inland, while sea breezes develop around 10 knots
along the coast.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through tomorrow night

High pressure begins to work its way over the coastal waters tonight
through mid-week. This will support subsiding seas and diminishing
winds across the coastal waters through tomorrow night. Light
west/northwest winds tonight and tomorrow will become light out of
the north tomorrow night. Seas fall below SCY criteria over the
coastal waters after midnight.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/KS
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...Frank/KP
MARINE...RM/KP