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000
FXUS61 KBTV 230744
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
344 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue before rain moves back into the
region Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front.
Temperatures will drop throughout the day on Wednesday with the
chance for snow on Wednesday as precipitation tapers off. Only
minor accumulations of snow are expected given a period of warm
temperatures ahead of the falling snow. After one cool day on
Thursday, conditions will begin to warm and become above normal
for the new work week. Another interval of sharp drying takes
place Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will return Saturday
afternoon into the new week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Despite south to southwest flow, the air
today will again be very dry. A range of high res guidance suggest
the coldest dewpoints will be late morning before increasing.
However, efficient warming will still yield dewpoint depressions
around 40 with relative humidity values in the 20s(maybe
staying just above 30 percent in the St. Lawrence Valley) from
noon through 7 PM today. Combined with increasingly gusty south
winds of 20 to 30 mph, fire weather concerns are present as
conditions are near pre-green up criteria for Red Flag in the
northern Champlain Valley. We`re fortunate that the area with
the lowest RH and highest gusts today were where showers were
most concentrated a few days back.

With little moisture, we will efficiently warm into the 60s today.
It`ll be a gorgeous day if you`re willing to stand some breezy
weather. South winds will maintain warm weather overnight, and
then a strong upper trough will usher in some precipitation
overnight and into Wednesday. The system is most impressive for
the sharp deformation axis and strong frontogenesis in
conjunction with favorable coupling of surface convergence with
some upper divergence at the left exit of an upper jet. The
system is less impressive for its moisture parameters and fast
moving nature, which will act as limiters to overall
precipitation amounts. Regionally, amounts will be lowest in
southern Vermont and particularly the Connecticut River Valley
around a tenth or less. Further north, about 0.20-0.50" is
expected. Along the international border in New York, some
locations may observe about 0.75" of liquid. Strong cold
advection on the backside will drive cold, dense air near the
surface and make for a transition to some snow before it clears
the region. Snow should be fairly short-lived and antecedent
warmth will preclude much in the way of accumulations, but parts
of the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains could approach
1" with perhaps 2" at summit levels. Daytime highs across the
northern tier will likely happen in the morning/early afternoon
before the front crosses with 40s to lower 50s in southern
Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...A cold, dry airmass will move into the
region in the wake of a strong cold front that moves through
Wednesday, which will quickly bring any precipitation to an end. The
dry air and calm winds will allow for strong radiational cooling,
with overnight lows dropping into the 20s, and even the teens in
some locations.

Dry conditions will continue for Thursday as the region remains
under the influence of high pressure. Daytime highs will be cold by
late April standards, with highs climbing into the upper 40s to mid
50s. Despite the cooler temperatures, abundant sunshine and light
winds across the region will make it fairly pleasant. Another cold
night can be expected overnight Thursday into early Friday morning
with clear skies and light winds, with temperatures dropping into
the 20s to near freezing once again

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Another dry and sunny day will round out
the work week as high pressure continues to shift eastward, with
increased southerly flow allowing for warmer, seasonable
temperatures. Precipitation chances will increase as we head into
the weekend into early next week as several shortwaves rotate into
the region, although guidance is still fairly spread with the exact
timing of these features. The other thing to consider is the amount
of dry air across the region these features will have to overcome
for measurable precipitation. Given the uncertainty at this point,
continued to stick with the NBM. Temperatures will continue to warm
up through the weekend, with highs in the 60s and possibly 70s by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Conditions the next 12 to 18 hours.
Skies are mostly clear with localized pockets of high clouds.
South winds will begin to pick up beyond 08z-10z. Until then,
VAD profiles indicate 30-35 knot winds are occurring from
1000-2000 ft agl, which suggests models are under-doing wind
speeds at that level. Using the general shape of where models
depict the highest winds off the surface, this suggests LLWS
for KMSS, KPBG, KBTV, and KEFK until surface winds pick up.
After 12z, we should see speeds increase to 7 to 14 knots with
gusts 20 to 25 knots. Winds diminish after 22z to 00z, but
remain at 5 to 10 knots sustained. Precipitation will begin to
approach from the west about 00z to 03z and slowly spread east
beyond 06z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA, Chance
SHSN.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 343 AM EDT Tuesday...Dry weather is this afternoon. The
core of the lowest dewpoints will happen this morning and early
afternoon, but efficient heating will continue to produce large
dewpoint depressions. The minimum RH values are expected to be
slightly higher compared to yesterday, but still likely to dip
into the 20 percent range. Parts of the St. Lawrence Valley may
stay above 30 percent depending on how quickly incoming moisture
arrives. Based on our local red flag criteria, we are expected
to hit red flag conditions (25+ mph winds and RH below 30%) late
this morning into this evening. However, fuels remain
sufficiently moist to prohibit the issuance of a red flag
warning. Nevertheless, fine fuels such as leaf litter and twigs
are sufficiently dry to start a few brush fires. As such, open
burning is not encouraged today. Please visit or contact your
local forestry or environmental protection services for
additional information. Remember, the state of New York has a
burn ban in place through May 14th.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Haynes
FIRE WEATHER...Clay