Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 271044
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
644 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...12z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough will move across the area later this
morning or midday with no impactful weather expected from it.
High pressure currently over the Central Plains region this
morning will take control of our weather pattern as it builds
into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes tonight through
Friday. A weak front and low pressure system will move into the
Ohio Valley late Friday night into this weekend with
the next round of unsettled and wet weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
630 am update...
The near term forecast through this afternoon looks on track at
this time with no meaningful changes needed with this early
morning update. Despite a very narrow strip of breaks in the
cloud cover over portions of northwest and north central Ohio
this morning, overcast skies will fill in and hang around for
much of today before clearing out tonight.

Previous update...
We are in the beginning of the upswing when it comes to our
weather pattern this morning. The cold front that brought rain
showers overnight is just about to exit our far eastern CWA in
the next couple of hours. We still have a few residual rain
showers in far NEOH and NWPA early this morning but should
continue to decrease and move out of NWPA before sunrise.

The weather will be cooler today with high temps about 10 to 15
degrees lower than yesterday. Unfortunately, an expansive
stratus deck of clouds over the Midwest and the western Ohio
Valley will move in this morning, keeping our skies mostly
overcast and high temps only in the upper 40s to low 50s today.
A weak surface trough extending down from the low pressure
system north of the Great Lakes will move across the area
around midday. It could bring a spotty sprinkle but really not
expecting any noticeable or impactful weather from it. It will
bring a slight wind shift from southwesterly to westerly later
today and that is about it.

High pressure centered over the Central Plains region will start
to build in to the Ohio Valley late today but more noticeably
tonight. The cloud cover will finally start to erode away over
northwest Ohio by early evening and the clearing line will move
eastward into northeast Ohio late this evening and overnight.
Temperatures will drop into the lower 30s and maybe a few spots
into the upper 20s late tonight and early Thursday morning,
especially if clouds clear out quicker. Winds will also relax
tonight 5 to 10 mph. Mostly sunny and fair weather returns
for Thursday with a nice day expected thanks to high pressure
building into our region. Seasonable temps are also expected for
the end of March, in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For the start of the short term period, high pressure will
remain dominant over the area, keeping the weather quiet across
the area with some sunshine on Friday. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system will develop over the Plains, moving a warm front north
towards the area Friday night. This boundary will act as a path
for the approaching low, allowing the center to track east
across the southern Great Lakes region throughout the day
Saturday. With increased moisture and a shortwave disturbance
aloft, widespread showers are expected to develop and occur much
of the day Saturday. Cannot rule out scattered thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon as a push of enhanced frontogensis moves
east, couple with a bit of diurnal instability. QPF with this
event will be highest across the southern counties with
estimated totals of 0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall. This may lead
to localized flooding concerns and rises on rivers, but will
need to continue to monitor in the coming days. On Saturday
night, showers will gradually taper from west to east as the low
pressure departs and high pressure begins to build into the
area.

Overnight lows Thursday night will drop into the low to mid 40s, but
when the warm front moves north and WAA kicks in, overnight lows
Friday and Saturday will only fall into the low to mid 40s. Daytime
highs will reach into the mid to upper 50s, possible touching 60
across the southwest counties on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Sunday, high pressure will build in allowing for the only dry
period through the entire long term forecast. There is an isolated
chance for some light showers Sunday morning along the southern tier
of counties, but will be highly dependent on where a stalled
boundary will established itself. By Sunday night, the again will
again be impacted by a low developing over the central US. Initially
on Sunday night, a warm front will approach the area from the south
as stronger upper level divergence becomes established and the
chance of showers returns. Models suggest that this system will take
a very similar track to the one on Saturday with a low pressure
center ultimately moving east across the area Monday night into
Tuesday. Biggest change with this package is that models are slowing
the progression of this low down a bit, which may result in showers
lingering longer into Tuesday. With general agreement amongst models
of precipitation occurring during this time, opted to maintain the
highest precipitation chances from Monday evening into Tuesday. With
strong dynamic support expected, cannot rule out some thunder and
the potential for periods of heavy rain. High temperatures will be
seasonal for this time of years, reaching into the 50s with mild
overnight lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
The weather message for our aviation partners and community will
be MVFR to low end VFR ceilings for much of today. We have some
pockets of low end MVFR moving in across NWOH this morning and
MVFR ceilings will be the general rule for the entire area
through this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight and that
will help start to clear out the cloud cover from west to east
this evening. Eventually VFR and fair skies will return
overnight into early Thursday morning.

Winds will be southwesterly 8 to 12 knots today. There could be
a some gusts up to 20 knots as well mainly this morning into
the midday. The wind direction will shift from the west late in
the day and decrease to around 5 knots or less from the west or
slightly northwest this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers very late Friday
night through the weekend and may continue into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly winds of 5-15 knots will continue today before a
secondary cold front pushes east and allows winds to shift to
northwesterly at 5-10 knots this evening. These conditions will
persist until Thursday morning when high pressure builds over the
area and allows winds to become southwesterly at 5-15 knots. As a
warm front approaches the southern shore of Lake Erie Friday night
into Saturday, winds will become light and variable until the
associated low tracks east across the basin on Saturday. As the low
moves east, winds will be variable at 5-10 knots before becoming
northwesterly at 5-10 know Saturday night behind the departing low.
Another system looks to impact the area Sunday night into the first
part of next week, but with this forecast there is no expected
marine headlines.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Campbell


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