Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 241310
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
910 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist over the area through tonight before a
low pressure centered over the central Plains moves a warm front
north by Monday morning. A cold front will move east Tuesday night
into Wednesday before another high pressure returns for Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9:10 AM Update...
Very quiet weather will continue through today as we remain
under the influence of high pressure. Made minor adjustments to
temperatures and dew points to account for current observations.

630 AM Update...
Minor adjustments were made to temperatures as some areas cooled
a bit more than previously forecast, but aside from that no
other changes were needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure has become established over the are this morning,
which is expected to remain dominant through much of tonight. This
airmass is much drier, so some sunshine today is expected along with
near normal temperatures as highs climb into the low 40s. Late
tonight, a warm front associated with a low pressure system over the
central Plains will lift north across the area. As a result
overnight lows will be a bit milder as scattered clouds coupled with
the start of a WAA regime only allows temperatures to fall into the
mid to upper 30s. In areas that clouds do not build over,
particularly across eastern counties, expect lows to be a tad
cooler, dropping into the low 30s due to increased radiational
cooling. On Monday, the entire area will reside in the warm sector
of the approaching low which will allow spring like temperatures to
return. Highs on Monday will climb into the low to mid 60s, but
conditions will be breezy from the southeast as the pressure
gradient strengthens with that approaching low. Expect the strongest
gusts out west and along the eastern lakeshore as downsloping
enhances the winds. Overall the next 36 hours will remain dry and
spring like temperatures return.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure ridging from the Canadian Maritimes down into the Mid-
Appalachian region will slowly lose influence of our weather pattern
Monday night. A rather strong upper level trough will swing out from
the High Plains region into the central U.S. and Upper Midwest
Monday night through Tuesday. A surface low will track from the
Cornbelt region into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes
region Tuesday into Tuesday night. A trailing cold front from the
low pressure system will advance eastward into the Ohio Valley
Monday night into Tuesday. Southeasterly to southerly low level flow
Monday night will advect in moisture ahead of this weather system.
Rain chances to slowly increase from west to east across Ohio late
Monday nigh into Tuesday morning. Breezy and wet weather conditions
will develop across the region ahead of the approaching cold front
Tuesday into Tuesday night. The cold front will push through late
Tuesday night from west to east. Rain chances will gradually taper
off with the frontal passage late Tuesday night. The milder weather
on Monday and Tuesday will be replaced be seasonable temperatures by
the middle of the week behind the cold front. Drier weather and
clearing skies are expected on Wednesday with high pressure building
in from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper level trough will be over the eastern U.S. on Thursday. At
the surface, high pressure will dominate our weather pattern and
bring fair weather conditions across the Ohio Valley region Thursday
and Friday. Temperatures are expected to be around seasonal averages
for the end of March. A slight upper level ridge will develop over
the central U.S. towards next weekend with a west-northwest flow
aloft type weather pattern. A weak frontal boundary may sag
southward across the Great Lakes region by next Saturday or Sunday
to bring a chance of showers. There is a little uncertainty on how
that particular part of the forecast will evolve with that weak
front next week. We will mention a chance for showers and continue
with seasonable to slightly above temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue through this TAF period
as well as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature
influencing the region. Light and variable winds this morning
will becomes sustained from the east-northeast at 5-10 knots by
this afternoon. As a low pressure system moves a warm front
north of the area tonight, winds will shift to become
southeasterly and increase to 5-12 knots. With this wind
direction, winds will be locally enhanced by downsloping,
especially for KCLE and KERI, although gusts up to 20 knots are
also expected at KMFD and KFDY at the tail end of this period.
Looking past this TAF period, winds will continue increase
through Monday as the associated low moves closer to the
region.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers Tuesday into early
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
We have allowed the prior small craft advisories to be expired early
this morning. Winds will turn more easterly today 10 to 15 knots.
Winds will further increase to 15-20 knots on the central and
western basins again late today into tonight. There could be the
need for another short duration Small Craft Advisory late today or
this evening before winds turn from the southeast diminish 10 to 15
knots later tonight and Monday. South to southwest winds will
increase 15 to 25 knots Monday night and Tuesday as strong low
pressure lifts into the Upper Midwest before winds shift from the
west-southwest and decrease behind a cold front late Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Generally westerly winds of 10 to 15 knots are then
expected Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Iverson
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Griffin


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