Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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803 FXUS64 KCRP 012335 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 635 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Current through Thursday night) Issued at 353 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Southeast surface winds have promoted increasing moisture across the region with afternoon dew points observed in the low to mid 70s. Convection has been slow to initialize this afternoon with only a few light radar returns across northern portions of the CWA. Early afternoon CAM guidance continues to suggest scattered to possibly numerous showers and storms developing this afternoon into the evening. Of note, guidance has shifted activity more northward than morning model runs and greatest focus of initialization now resides along the north central CWA border, generally after 21Z. SPC Mesoanalysis tools continue to suggest a favorable environment for strong to severe storms with surface based CAPE values between 3,500- 4,000 J/kg and DCAPE values greater than 1,000 J/kg. However, the threat continues to remain conditional with models continuing to indicate a warm layer between 850-700mb. Of note, SPC has included a 2% probability of a tornado north of a line from La Salle to Aransas counties where effective layer STP values are greater than 2. In addition, strong to severe storms developing this evening will be capable of strong to damaging wind gusts and frequent cloud to ground lightning. There is a low risk of severe hail. Most convection is forecast to move north and west of the local CWA after 0Z with a few hints of a lingering storm across portions of Webb county into late evening. Overnight, guidance has hinted at the potential for fog development across the coastal waters, advecting into the Coastal Plains. Any fog development is forecast to lift through sunrise. Into the afternoon, enough low level moisture remains in place on Thursday to support widely isolated showers and lightning storms during the afternoon (PoPs ~20%). High temperatures range the low to mid 90s across much of Brush country and the Rio Grande Plains. Temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 80s along the Coastal Plains and eastward. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 353 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A series of mid level shortwaves pass overhead through the period. Model soundings indicate a dry mid layer generally persisting into early next week with limited moisture around 850mb. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the period with any mention of precip limited to the Rio Grande Plains Friday and Saturday afternoon (PoP ~ 20%). Temperatures widely ranging the 90s across Brush country and the Rio Grande Plains late this week, warm to 100 degrees by Monday. Along the coastal plains and eastward, highs in the mid 80s to low 90s follow a gradual warming trend each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of storms this evening with the medium chance being across COT to VCT and lower chances the farther south you go. There is a low (10-20%) chance of showers continuing after midnight for COT, LRD and VCT TAFs. Thus, have VCSH through Thursday morning for these sites. Outside of convection, conditions are expected to become primarily MVFR this evening as clouds lower and spread across S TX. VFR conditions resume by early Thursday afternoon. Surface winds will be southeast and gusty through 03Z this evening with gusts up to 25kt. Winds are expected to restrengthen through Thursday morning, mainly across VCT and CRP. && .MARINE... Issued at 353 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Small craft should exercise caution tonight for onshore winds of 15- 20 kts across the offshore waters. Onshore flow continues on Thursday, building seas to 4-6 ft. Seas gradually subside Thursday night through Friday as onshore flow falls to 8-12 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 87 76 89 / 10 10 0 0 Victoria 73 87 73 87 / 30 30 10 10 Laredo 77 95 75 98 / 20 10 0 20 Alice 74 90 74 92 / 20 20 0 10 Rockport 75 85 75 85 / 10 20 10 0 Cotulla 75 92 75 97 / 30 20 0 20 Kingsville 75 88 75 90 / 20 20 0 10 Navy Corpus 76 85 77 86 / 10 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245- 342>347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MLB LONG TERM....MLB AVIATION...TE/81