Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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849 FXUS61 KCTP 081739 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 139 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... - A mainly dry cold front over Central PA at midday pushes through the Susquehanna Valley this afternoon. - A strong wave of low pressure will move across southern PA Thursday evening. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface cold front extended from near KELM to KUNV and KCBE at 1545Z with just some bkn high based cu along it. Otherwise, negative LLVL Theta-E advection and increasing wind/shear aloft will negate the chance for any cu to develop vertical enough to produce precip along or ahead of this boundary. For this afternoon, look for good weather for most outdoor activities with abundant sunshine and above normal high temps by around 10 deg F. However, a gusty West-Northwest wind (between 30-35KTS) will create good kite-flying weather, but challenging conditions for the gold and frisbee football courses. High temps will vary from the mid 70s across the higher terrain of the north and west to the mid 80s throughout the Southern Valleys and Lower Susq Region. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... West winds and gusts will steadily decrease around and shortly after sunset before veering around to a lighter NW then northerly direction between midnight and daybreak. After an initially clear sky, nigh clouds will increase from the SW. The NAM pushes the old front a little farther S than the GFS. A wave of low pressure will develop to the west and roll along the front later tonight. Even the more- northerly position of the old front would be a little too far S for much/any convection to make it`s way into PA before sunrise. During the early morning hours of Thursday, the old/stationary front has potential to drift northward, but most guidance seems to only bring it up to the srn border of the CWA. If the low- pressure system sets up further to the north, there is some potential for portions of southern PA to have a couple of hours in the warm sector and some severe potential (outlined in SPC`s Day 3 SWO with SLGT up to the MD-PA border) but with the bulk of model guidance suggesting set-up south of the area, have mainly stuck to SChc thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The aforementioned low moves off the coast on Friday and will allow for relatively cool temperatures across central PA with lingering showers as the unsettled pattern continues into the weekend with an upper low crossing the region. The best chances of precipitation tapering off will be in the overnight Saturday morning period with chances increasing into the latter half of the weekend. Drier period will continue into the first part of next week, the rest of the long term period, as upper level ridging builds/moves across the eastern U.S. thanks to long wave troffing being reconstituted across the Plains/eastern Rockies. This will likely mean more rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms for the Plains, but a more settled pattern and milder temps in the East, at least for few days. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front over Central PA this midday hour will move southeast across the Susq Valley this afternoon. No precip or MVFR is expected with the only change accompanying its passage coming in the form of a 30-45 deg wind shift from the WSW to the West or West-Northwest in its wake. A drier westerly flow behind the front will maintain the current, widespread VFR conditions for the rest of today and tonight. Winds will generally gust in the 20-30KT range behind the cold front, but a few gusts in the mid-upper 30KT range are possible. Another round of showers and storms will approach central PA during the mid morning hours Thursday, as convection moves out of the Ohio valley. Outlook... Thu...Periods of rain/low cigs possible, mainly PM. Fri...Low cigs/drizzle possible, especially in the morning. Sat...PM showers/low cigs possible, mainly W Mtns. Sun...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Sct afternoon showers/brief vis reductions possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo LONG TERM...Gartner/NPB AVIATION...Lambert/Colbert