287
FXUS63 KDLH 132328
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
628 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue through Wednesday afternoon.

- Frost expected tonight and Tuesday night.

- Multiple chances for showers and storms Wednesday evening onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Quiet to begin the forecast with just typical spring weather and
normal temperatures. Frosty conditions the next two nights, so
issued a Frost Advisory in the MN Arrowhead and NW WI.
Afternoon humidities flirt with fire weather criteria, but winds
lack today and tomorrow, when they finally rise, an incoming
system will increase moisture leading to little concern.

The system on Wednesday is a run of the mill low pressure with
potential for 0.25 to 0.5" of rain. Models start to diverge on
timing of any subsequent systems after this small system. Weak
forcing makes sense for that so generally timing shortwaves and
their impact after this. Blobs of higher PWAT air do make it
into the region on Saturday and again on Monday with instability
working into the region giving the chance for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms.

Not going to get too detailed with the discussion as things are
likely to change given the model uncertainty in a weakly forced
and unstable air mass despite generally progressive flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions with light winds are expected through this TAF
period. Northeast winds sustaining around 10 kts with a few
locations gusting up to 20kts this evening will diminish by 01z
to less than 10 knots. They will continue to diminish overnight
as a ridge axis slides across the area. Tuesday morning winds
will turn to easterly but reamin generally at or less than 10
kts.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Light and variable winds turn easterly tonight over Lake
Superior. Winds up to 20 kts are possible Tuesday afternoon in
the Twin Ports. These northeast winds will continue into
Wednesday and will increase further as a low approaches the
Northland.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MNZ010>012-019>021-037.
WI...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     WIZ001>004-008-009.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...Wolfe