Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 212103
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
403 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clipper will bring light snow overnight. Measurable snow will
  fall along and south of Highway 2 and up to 4 inches in our
  southern area.

- A strong system will bring heavy snow and strong winds across
  the Northland. Widespread totals of 6 inches or more are
  likely by Monday morning. Mixed precipitation will fall on top
  of snow Monday afternoon, especially in northwestern
  Wisconsin. Travel will likely be impacted late this weekend
  into next week.

- Temperatures near freezing to the upper 30s will linger after
  the system passes, so the snow will stick around until the
  late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A small clipper combined with a band of frontogenesis will bring
snowfall across central Minnesota and Wisconsin. The band of
heaviest snow will fall south of our area, but widespread totals
of 1 to 3 inches are still expected along and south of Highway
2. The Iron Range and along the North Shore will see an inch or
less.

Friday and Saturday will be our last dry days for a bit as cold
dry air returns over the Northland. Sunny conditions will be
seen before cloud cover ahead of the incoming system arrives.
Temperatures will be similar to today in the upper 20s and low
30s. Dewpoints as low as the negative single digits will lead to
very dry conditions especially over northeast Minnesota Friday,
becoming more widespread on Saturday where conditions stay sunny
over peak heating hours.

The system of the season will move through later this weekend. A
large upper level trough over the mountain west will lead to a
Colorado low moving across the Central Plains and turn north
over the western Great Lakes. Ensembles are surprisingly in
agreement on the track of the low, so confidence in the storm
track is higher than usual in this point in the forecast. Light
snow is expected to begin Sunday morning and become heavier
throughout the day as more moisture is advected northward. Onset
of accumulating snow is uncertain due to the dry air in the low
levels ahead of the system. Inflow of Gulf moisture along with
an widespread mid level forcing will lead to higher snow totals,
with totals of over 6 inches likely by Tuesday. Some areas could
see a foot or more by the end of this system. However, north
central Minnesota will be on the western edge of the heavy snow,
and could see drastically less than those further east.

A challenge in this forecast will be the arrival of mixed
precipitation and rain on Monday as the warm sector of the
system reaches the Northland. The exact placement of where
precipitation will transition is still uncertain, but there
seems to be increasing confidence that most of northwestern
Wisconsin will see rain/snow mix on Monday. The question remains
on how far west the warm air will reach. Monday is also when the
snow in the cold sector of the low will be heaviest. Northeast
flow over Lake Superior may also lead to lake enhancement of
snowfall, leading to locally higher totals along the North
Shore.

Snow will linger into Tuesday as moisture continues to be
wrapped around to the west side of the low. Snowfall rates will
decrease for Tuesday as moisture and forcing become more
limited. The low will then slowly move off to the northeast
Tuesday evening and overnight. An active pattern seems to
continue into the late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A VFR cloud deck currently in central Minnesota will make its
way north throughout this evening. A clipper affecting mainly
central Minnesota and Wisconsin will lower conditions for BRD
and HYR overnight under light to moderate snow. IFR visibilities
are expected, but LIFR is possible (20% chance). DLH may see
MVFR conditions at the northern end of the system, but
confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF since this
system will be struggling against dry lower levels this far
north. Conditions will improve to VFR by late morning tomorrow
as the clipper moves east.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Lake Superior is experiencing the calm before the storm. Winds
less than 15 kts tonight and Friday will increase slightly
Friday night for a few hours as a clipper moves over central
Minnesota and Wisconsin. At this time, highest gusts will be
around 20 kts, and waves are not expected to exceed 4 ft, but if
they increase further, a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for
Friday night. Winds will further increase as a system moves in
late this weekend. Hazardous small craft conditions will begin
on Sunday before increasing to gales by Monday. While not
currently forecasted, some models are hinting at storm force
winds which we will continue to monitor.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
     Friday for MNZ033-034-036-038.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
     Friday for WIZ006>009.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML


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