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000
FXUS63 KEAX 210657
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
157 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/Freeze conditions expected early this morning with
temperatures warming to near 60 this afternoon

- Near normal temperatures return on Monday and continue through the
week.

- Several precipitation chances arrive next week beginning Monday
night.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A chilly night is in store across the region as surface high
pressure slides into the forecast area overnight. Thanks to this
surface high, expect continued calm winds and a gradually clearing
skies. This has set the stage for good radiational cooling tonight
and the potential for frost or freeze across the area. Expect
morning lows along and north of US-36 to be at or below freezing.
Farther south, lows will range from 32 to 36 degrees. Frost
formation will be possible for the entire area, especially in low
lying locations. Cover any sensitive vegetation tonight.

As we head into the daylight hours, expect a mild spring day, though
temperatures will remain slightly below normal. Ample sunshine this
afternoon will help temperatures warm to near 60 across most of
the forecast area. One last night of chilly temperatures is in
store Sunday night into Monday morning with the surface high
still impacting the forecast area. Widespread mid 30s can be
expected, so frost will again be possible in some locations with
the light winds and clear skies expected as well.

On Monday we will finally see a bit of a pattern shift with winds
turning back to the south ahead of the arrival of our next system.
During the day Monday we can expect a tightening pressure gradient
leading to breezy southerly winds and decent warm air advection.
Highs will reach the upper 60s to low 70s in the afternoon (near to
above normal). After that, rain chances start to ramp up during the
overnight as a shortwave progresses across the High Plains toward
the Great Lakes dragging a front through our forecast area. Showers
and thunderstorms can be expected Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Precipitation amounts are expected to be pretty light and move
through quickly, so most will see around or under a quarter
inch.

Despite the passage of the cold front, temperatures remain fairly
seasonal Wednesday and the rest of the week with highs near 70 each
day. For now, we can expect mostly dry conditions for Wednesday
and Thursday, but a more impressive shortwave makes its way
toward the forecast area Thursday evening bringing the return of
shower and thunderstorm chances. Right now, it`s impacts on our
forecast area remain in question, however this system will be
one to watch in the coming days, as it may bring the next chance
for severe weather somewhere nearby our forecast area.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with light
winds out of the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ020>025-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017.
KS...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...HB