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000
FXUS66 KEKA 202224
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
324 PM PDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A dissipating cold front will bring a slight chance for
drizzle to the North Coast through early this evening. Gusty northerly
breezes are forecast to develop later tonight behind the front
and then strengthen on Sunday. Otherwise, dry weather with above
normal temperatures are forecast for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery showed a mass of thick
clouds associated with a dissipating cold front just offshore the
North Coast this afternoon. ARW and HRRR models continues to
indicate potential (10-20% chance) for minuscule amounts
(0.01-0.04in) of precip (drizzle) through early this evening.
Breezy northerly winds will develop later tonight as the front
moves to southeast.

Otherwise, dry weather is forecast to continue for the remainder
of the weekend into early next week. Interior temperatures will
remain above normal (mid 70s to mid 80s) through Tuesday. Monday
will most likely be the warmest day as offshore flow strengthens.
Warmest interior valleys will likely (70-90% chance) peak in the
low to mid 80s on Monday.

Breezy to windy conditions are expected for coastal areas on Sunday
as a cold air surge develops offshore in the wake of the front.
Peak gusts (mostly in the late afternoon and early evening) of 25 to
35 mph are forecast. Granted, higher gusts (40-50 mph) are
probable (>70% chance) for wind prone locations; the King Range,
coastal headlands of SW Humboldt and windy point or Pt St George,

On Tuesday, a 500mb shortwave trough will approach the Pac NW.
Deterministic model guidance continues to indicate increasing
buoyant energy and instability for possible (20-30% chance)
showers and thunderstorms across the interior - mostly Trinity
County - on Tuesday. Also, a closed cyclonic circulation evident
at 925mb will likely induce a southerly wind reversal and a push
of marine air/low clouds from the SW Monday night into Tue morning.
Some cooling is expected on Tue, but high temps will likely (>60%
chance) remain above normal (lower to mid 70s) until the air mass
cools down more drastically toward the end of the week.

Potential for precipitation will increase mid to late next week
as a colder 500mb trough (temps <-25C). Timing has tightened up to
Thu-Fri with 24 hours probabilities for > 1 inch in 24 hours for
the western slopes of Del Norte and northern Humboldt Counties
around 20 to 30%. There is still a great deal of variability with
timing and precip amounts. Also, there are indications for a
secondary trough in the NW flow on the backside of the main trough
that may spark up more showers Friday night into Saturday (10-20%
chance). It is more certain that interior high temperatures will
cool down by late week - mostly in the 60`s. If snow levels fall
to 5000 feet on Friday, high temps will struggle to reach the
lower 40s in the high mountains Fri-Sat. Precipitation amounts
are forecast to be light, but this time of year even light amounts
will have impacts on outdoor plans or activities. Stay tuned. DB/ZVS

&&

.AVIATION...Latest space pictures show mid cloud spreading over the
Redwood Coast this afternoon ahead of a weak frontal passage. Some
drizzle is expected with this front, and periods of IFR are possible
later this afternoon as it passes overhead. Space pictures also show
rapid clearing and subsidence in the cold sector behind the
boundary. Thus any low cloud associated with this feature that moves
onshore this afternoon and evening should mix out overnight,
accompanied by developing NW winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected across the interior. TDJ

&&

.MARINE...Northwesterly wind will build through the waters from
north to south with gusts over 21 kts in the outer waters later this
evening. Wind will continue to increase with gale force gusts
throughout the outer waters during the day on Sunday. These reach
the inners this evening, and gale force gusts should still be
expected right along shore around Cape Mendocino and Pt. St. George.
Strong winds will build steep short period seas in excess of 10 feet
by Sunday afternoon.

Weak high pressure building over California will help gradually
shunt the strongest wind offshore starting Monday, which will allow
at least coastal conditions to gradually calm early this week. Short
period waves dominate the sea state through early week, with a mid
period swell up to 5 feet building Sunday. TDJ

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM PDT
     Sunday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for
     PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT
     Sunday for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.

     Gale Warning from 3 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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