National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221727
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1127 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Warming and drying conditions are expected into midweek as we
return to a typical spring-time weather pattern. Winds will
increase throughout the week out of the west-southwest with two
systems passing by from Thursday into the weekend. These
disturbances will result in breezy to windy conditions, some
blowing dust, and high fire danger.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Mainly clear skies are in place early this AM with only patchy
low clouds in far eastern areas and a few lingering cirrus. CAMs
are hinting at isolated showers developing this afternoon in
northern Chihuahua off the Sierra Madres due to orographic lift
and a touch of instability. There is a very slight chance that
this activity moves into SW Hudspeth county this evening,
otherwise we remain dry and mostly clear. Weak ridging builds in
today, allowing temperatures to rebound to above normal and flush
out some of the surface moisture from the backdoor front. Winds
shift to southerly and then WSW by Tuesday as the ridge starts to
push eastward. Deeper southwest flow takes over for Wednesday
ahead of an upper low moving into SoCal, resulting in slightly
breezier winds.

This system continues to trend slower with each day`s model
runs with the trough now passing through NM Thurs evening
according to the GEFS mean. The track and progression is a bit
better for a windy day as a 990-995mb lee cyclone develops in SE
CO Thurs PM and decent isobar packing across the CWA. 850mb winds
are a bit stronger still than yesterday, 30-35kts, as the Pacific
front rolls through during the evening. 25-35 mph sustained with
gusts near 45 mph seems like a good bet for Thursday; there is now
a low chance of wind headlines (probably just advisories) since
winds have trended up. Blowing dust will be a concern as well on
Thursday due to the southerly component of the winds.

For Friday, zonal flow takes over for a brief period (15-25 mph
sustained) in advance of our next wind storm. Compared to this
time yesterday, the second system is a touch faster and stronger,
meaning Saturday would be windier than Sunday. With the Pacific
front, 850mb winds are modeled to be 40-45kts on the GFS Saturday
PM. GEFS mean however is shallower and weaker. Regardless,
Saturday looks to be windy with lingering breeziness on Sunday on
the backside of the system. Rain chances will be low for each
system, especially Thursday`s. The deeper nature of next weekend`s
storm gives hope for a slight chance of precip, but probably not
for the lowlands. Temperatures will be knocked down a degree or
two each day for the second half of the week as longwave troughing
sits over the Western US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW250. Winds will be light
throughout the period, generally less than 10 knots. Direction
will start off southerly (160-180) before becoming more westerly
(230-260).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Fire weather concerns will grow throughout the week. Winds shift
southerly today as the pressure gradient loosens and high
pressure drifts off to the east. Drier conditions are expected
today, especially in eastern areas where low clouds have hung
around for the past day or so. We will be very dry for the rest of
the period with min RHs below critical levels outside of isolated
spots in the higher terrain. Winds increase out of the west-
southwest to breezy levels on Tuesday (20-ft winds near 15 mph),
resulting in mostly elevated fire weather according to our RFTI
grids through Wednesday.

Two upper troughs then move through the region later in the week,
increasing winds to critical levels (20-25 mph at 20-ft) starting
on Thursday. RFTI rises to mostly critical category for Thursday
as fuels continue to dry out, including in the mountains. ERCs
will be generally in the 70-90th percentile in the lowlands by
Thursday due to warmer temperatures and breezier winds. Mountain
ERCs should be somewhere around 50th percentile, lowering the
potential for fire spreads. Friday and Saturday look to be mostly
near-critical with slightly weaker winds expected but still at
least breezy. As of now, Thursday seems like the worst fire
weather day of the period. There will be little to no chance of
precip with these two late-week systems.

Min RHs will be 15-30% today; then 5-15%. Vent rates range from
good to excellent today, then mostly excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  85  60  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            78  54  85  56 /  10  10   0   0
Las Cruces               84  55  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               80  56  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               59  44  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    81  54  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              76  51  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   83  52  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                83  52  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       83  60  88  60 /   0  10   0   0
Dell City                82  51  91  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             86  54  92  54 /  10  10   0   0
Loma Linda               76  54  83  56 /   0  10   0   0
Fabens                   85  56  91  57 /   0  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             82  54  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           82  62  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            81  52  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    84  50  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 83  56  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                79  54  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  73  47  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                70  47  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 69  43  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  75  48  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                80  51  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                81  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             77  46  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   78  48  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    84  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               79  51  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  77  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   84  52  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  83  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           84  52  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               81  52  80  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown