Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
470
FNUS74 KEPZ 041549
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for OAKMONT...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
949 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 MDT on May 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front was trying to push across the Sacramento
Mountains this morning. Timberon is right between the two air
masses. The further west the cold front pushes the winds will come
more around to the east or southeast, but if the front stalls,
the winds would stay out of the southwest. Just be aware of winds
shifting southeast to southwest this morning. By late this
afternoon the stronger southwest winds will win out. RH`s, may be
a little elevated this morning do to the moisture pushing in from
the east, but by the afternoon we will see min RH`s near 10%. We
may see the southeast winds push in again later tonight, but they
will quickly be flushed out as the southwest winds dominate early
on Sunday. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are
expected on Sunday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 11 to 17 mph shifting to the
southwest around 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......12700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (227000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........3 2 2 7
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............61 68 73 75
RH..............19 15 12 11
20 ft wind......SE 11 S 17 S 17 SW 18
20 ft wind gust.23 32 32 32
Mix hgt (ft)....11600 11600 12700 12700
Transport wind..S 20 S 20 SW 22 SW 22
Haines index....4 4 5 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..227 227 242 242
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT EXNT EXNT
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 13 mph with gusts to around 28
mph shifting to the northeast 6 to 8 mph
overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 13 mph shifting to the east around
9 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (187300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(4400 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........5 5 8 3 3 12
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............70 59 52 47 44 41
RH..............13 21 32 47 62 85
20 ft wind......SW 13 SW 13 W 7 NE 8 NE 8 E 6
20 ft wind gust.28 28 13 13 13 9
Mix hgt (ft)....10400 10400 500 500 600 600
Transport wind..S 13 S 13 E 9 E 9 E 9 E 9
Haines index....6 5 5 5 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..187 187 4 4 4 4
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 7 mph shifting to the
southwest 10 to 18 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Mixing height.......7700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 17 mph increasing to southwest
around 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (20500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (118100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (173200
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........20 9 1 3
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............40 56 69 75
RH..............96 43 21 12
20 FT wind......SE 7G9 S 10G23 SW 16G31 SW 18G32
Mix hgt (ft)....2300 2300 6700 7700
Transport wind..SE 9 SE 9 S 17 SW 25
Haines index....4 3 3 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..21 21 118 173
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Clear. Breezy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds
around 19 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Clear. Breezy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds
around 22 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Clear. Breezy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds
around 18 mph.
$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...Alamogordo Disptach
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2413146.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmadc@firenet.gov