908
FNUS74 KEPZ 022251
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for UNIT 74 AREA 3 RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
451 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on May 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Similar conditions on Friday with very dry air and southwest winds
10 to 15 mph resulting in Excellent smoke transport to the
northeast. Overnight and early morning flow will be light (less
than 10 mph) continuing out of the west-southwest. No change in
humidity day-to-day with poor overnight recoveries. Slight uptick
in wind speeds on Saturday, increasing further on Sunday. Extreme
fire behavior is possible on Sunday and we will need Red Flags
that afternoon. Winds becoming more westerly early next week,
remaining breezy each afternoon. No precipitation expected.


.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......10800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 16 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 19 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (35100 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (168100 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      2      3      3      5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............48     58     65     69     71
RH..............37     25     16     12     11
20 ft wind......W 5    W 7    SW 11  SW 11  SW 12
20 ft wind gust.9      16     22     22     24
Mix hgt (ft)....3500   10300  10300  10800  10800
Transport wind..W 9    SW 16  SW 16  SW 19  SW 19
Haines index....3      3      4      5      6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..35     168    168    184    184
Ventrate Cat....POOR   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 11 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 18 mph decreasing to around 7 mph
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (144800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (3600 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........5      5      6      15     15     23
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............67     56     51     47     44     41
RH..............12     19     26     32     37     43
20 ft wind......SW 11  SW 11  W 8    W 4    W 4    NW 3
20 ft wind gust.22     22     21     9      9      7
Mix hgt (ft)....9100   9100   500    500    500    500
Transport wind..SW 18  SW 18  W 12   W 12   W 7    W 7
Haines index....6      5      4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..145    145    5      5      4      4
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 8 to 15 mph with
                    gusts to around 30 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......13200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 9 mph increasing to 21 to 25
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (57700 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (259200 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........19        17        21        14
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............40        54        65        70
RH..............44        29        15        9
20 FT wind......W 3G7     S 8G21    S 13G28   SW 15G30
Mix hgt (ft)....5200      5200      12600     13200
Transport wind..SW 9      SW 9      S 21      SW 25
Haines index....4         4         6         6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..58        58        259       275
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      FAIR      EXNT      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs around 70. Southwest
winds around 13 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs around 70. West winds around
17 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds
around 13 mph.

$$
Forecaster...DENNHARDT
Requested by...Silver City Dispatch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412655.4/EPZ
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV