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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 121748
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for CEDAR CREEK RX...USFS/D-1
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1148 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 MDT on April 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Very dry weather is expected today with min RH values in the lower
teens. Highs will be much above normal with some thin cirrus.
Winds will top out around 15 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.
Direction mainly be from the south or southwest though the
alignment of the canyon may allow periods from the southeast. Vent
rates will be excellent. Similar conditions are expected through
the weekend. Winds will increase for Monday leading to critical to
extreme fire concerns.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 13 to 16 mph with gusts to around
                    29 mph.
Mixing height.......12000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 23 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (217200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........38     38     57
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
Temp............71     73     74
RH..............12     11     11
20 ft wind......SW 10  SW 13  S 16
20 ft wind gust.28     28     29
Mix hgt (ft)....10800  12000  12000
Transport wind..S 23   S 26   S 26
Haines index....5      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..217    275    275
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph in
                    the evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 19 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (235800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (9000 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........44     44     22     7      7      7
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............70     60     55     52     49     47
RH..............16     23     29     33     31     31
20 ft wind......S 14   S 14   S 12   SW 12  SW 12  SW 7
20 ft wind gust.29     29     22     22     22     14
Mix hgt (ft)....10300  10300  600    600    600    600
Transport wind..S 19   S 19   S 18   S 18   SW 16  SW 16
Haines index....5      4      4      4      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..236    236    10     10     9      9
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 26 mph increasing to 18 to 21 mph with
                    gusts to around 38 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 16 mph increasing to southwest 29
                    to 34 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (72800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (160700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (174200
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........7         6         8         12
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............45        54        63        67
RH..............32        24        16        13
20 FT wind......SW 8G15   SW 13G26  SW 18G36  SW 21G38
Mix hgt (ft)....3500      3500      5900      6000
Transport wind..W 16      W 16      W 29      SW 34
Haines index....3         4         4         4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..73        73        161       174
Ventrate Cat....GOOD      GOOD      EXNT      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs around 70. Southwest
winds around 14 mph.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 60s.
Southwest winds around 22 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s. West
winds around 19 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...NICK
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410534.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMADC@FIRENET.GOV