590
FXUS64 KEWX 071712
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1212 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Added a slight chance for a thunderstorm across the Hill Country in
the late afternoon into this evening. 12Z CAM guidance came in a
little more aggressive on just enough erosion of the capping
inversion thanks to the nearby boundary and daytime heating to try to
kick off a storm or two. If a storm is able to develop, areal
convective parameters could support activity becoming severe with
strong instability and good deep layer shear profiles. If a severe
storm does develop, large hail and strong winds are the primary
hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows low clouds and stratus rapidly
filling over the region early this morning. We`ll wake up to some
patchy fog as well, but the primary concerns with this stratus layer
will be for the aviation community. The short term period will be
hot and mainly dry, but despite no PoPs mentioned, there is an
outside shot at a few showers or storms this afternoon and evening.
Regardless of any precip chances, it will be downright toasty this
afternoon, and with dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s, it`ll feel
even hotter, with heat indices in the 100-105 range along and south
of I-10 and east of I-35/I-37. Heat indices are expected to creep up
even higher on Wednesday as max temps top out in the mid to upper
90s for all locations outside of the Rio Grande Plains, where it
will warm into the 100-105 range. While these HI`s will not reach
heat advisory criteria, it will certainly be the hottest day of the
year so far area wide, so have a plan to stay hydrated, wear light,
loose fitting clothing, and take frequent breaks if you plan to be
outdoors for any extended period of time. If you are not a fan of
the heat this early in the season like me, you can look forward to
the long term period forecast below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The latest round of model guidance has trended a little slower with
the cold front expected to move into the region on Thursday. We have
made some upward adjustments to the expected highs as northwesterly,
downsloping winds behind the dryline push highs into the 100 to 106
degree range across the Rio Grande plains. Farther east, we will see
another hot and humid day with highs mostly in the 90s. With the
cold front arriving closer to the peak heating hours, we will keep a
low chance (around 20%) for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
for the Hill Country and portions of the I-35 corridor north of San
Antonio. Once the hi-res models begin to cover this period, suspect
we may see rain chances go up and expand slightly. With models
suggesting a weak disturbance moving over the region, we can`t rule
out some strong to severe storms during the afternoon and early
evening hours. The current SPC day 3 outlook places a good portion of
the Hill Country and I-35 corridor in a Marginal to Slight risk
(level 1 to 2 out of 5), with large hail and damaging winds the main
severe weather concerns.

Cooler temperatures are on the way beginning Friday and continuing
through the upcoming weekend. Through the mentioned period, expect
highs to range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s along with overnight
lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s. There will be a low chance for
rain out west along the Rio Grande on Friday with rain chances
spreading east into the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill
Country on Saturday. Rain chances eventually make it farther east
into the I-35 corridor and Hill Country on Sunday as the GFS shows a
subtropical upper jet over the region. Temperatures begin to warm
closer to climatological normals on Monday as the dryline sharpens
over west Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR flight conditions are to return to all sites over the next few
hours. There is the slight possibility for convection late this
afternoon into this evening across the Hill Country but any storm
activity should remain away from the TAF sites. However, we`ll
closely monitor and make any adjustments later today if this is
expected to change. Low stratus develops overnight into Wednesday
morning with MVFR to IFR ceilings. Some minor visibility reduction
will be possible as well. The conditions improve to VFR entering
Wednesday afternoon for the I-35 sites, and Wednesday morning at
KDRT as the dryline advances eastward. Modest south to east-
southeasterly winds will generally trend. The only exception is
westerly winds Wednesday morning at KDRT behind the dryline.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  92  73  89 /  10  10   0  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  92  71  89 /  10  10   0  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  95  72  92 /  10   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            73  92  70  87 /  20  10   0  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           76 105  72 104 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  91  72  87 /  20  10   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             73  99  71  97 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  93  72  91 /  10   0   0  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  91  74  89 /   0  10   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  96  74  94 /  10   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           75  99  73  94 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...Brady