343
FXUS62 KFFC 020537
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
137 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

An upper ridge will build over the area tonight and Thursday,
with temperatures continuing to climb. The cumulus field over the
area today is thickest across the S half of the area, with clear
skies across the NE. Early afternoon temperatures ranged from the
mid to upper 70s across the N mountains to the mid 80s across
parts of the S County Warning Area.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper 50s
across the N to the lower 60s across the S. Skies will be mostly
clear. Some fog development is possible late tonight, but mainly
near and SE of Dublin.

High temperatures on Thursday will be quite warm, with most
locations away from the mountains in the upper 80s to near 90. The
highest elevations in the N should remain in the mid to upper
70s. The weather will be mostly dry, although there is a slight
chance of a late day thunderstorm near Americus.

Low temperatures Thursday night will be warmer than preceding
nights, ranging from near 60 in the NE mountains to the lower to
mid 60s elsewhere. Showers and a few thunderstorms may make it
into the NW corner of the state prior to daybreak.

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Pattern shift expected through extended period, with generally
  wetter weather.

Short-term ridge loses its dominance over the region by late week
with an approaching shortwave. Warm weekly temperatures will
moderate slightly (still close to 5 degrees above normal) as
moisture influx and increased precip activity keep highs a touch
lower. Although rain chances begin to rise over north Georgia
during the predawn hours on Friday, best coverage and intensity
will be correlated with maximum daytime heating Friday, and extend
into Saturday. Rainfall amounts appear to be limited to a half
inch or less for the majority of the area, though east central
Georgia could see totals approach 1 inch. At this time, just
general thunder is expected with instability just not enough to
support significant development in the isolated to scattered
activity.

In the wake of the shortwave, quasi-zonal flow keeps sufficient
moisture over the region to produce heating-driven afternoon
convection each afternoon through the extended period (especially
Sunday and Monday). This shift will definitely feel more summer-
like as warm temperatures resume and highest coverage and storm
intensity is expected in the afternoon and evening. By midweek,
remaining afternoon and evening convection chances will be highest
(though chance PoPs at best) over north Georgia.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Winds currently light and VRB will shift more to NE ~10z this
morning as high level cirrus remains across the area. Expecting
the normal cu field to setup this afternoon and then into the
overnight period expecting cirrus to blanket the area ahead of
approaching showers Friday evening.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium to high confidence on all elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  82  63  79 /   0  40  50  80
Atlanta         66  81  65  80 /  10  50  60  70
Blairsville     59  75  59  74 /  10  60  70  80
Cartersville    64  83  63  80 /  20  50  60  80
Columbus        66  86  66  85 /  10  30  40  60
Gainesville     63  80  64  78 /   0  50  50  80
Macon           65  85  65  82 /   0  30  30  80
Rome            64  81  63  80 /  30  60  70  80
Peachtree City  64  83  63  81 /  10  40  60  70
Vidalia         65  88  68  83 /   0  20  20  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...Hernandez