Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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403 FXUS62 KFFC 101044 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 644 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Key Messages: - Thunderstorms will bring widespread rainfall to central Georgia this morning. - A frontal passage today will result in cooler and less humid weather on Saturday. Today and Saturday: The initial weather concern today will be an MCS moving out of Alabama. General thinking is that the MCS will track eastward this morning along an outflow boundary and instability gradient left by prior convection (from yesterday and overnight). This boundary currently stretches from south central Alabama into southern Georgia and is nearly stationary. Assuming storms follow this boundary, the greatest potential for severe weather though noon today should be over southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Any storms in central Georgia should be elevated and working with an atmosphere that has been chewed up and spit out by several rounds of thunderstorms over the last 24 hours. Thus the severe weather potential for places like Columbus and Macon should be towards the lower end of the scale. The primary hazards with any stronger storms would be damaging wind gusts or hail. Thunder could occur as far north as Atlanta this morning, but severe weather is not anticipated due to a lack of appreciable instability. An airmass shift will occur this afternoon as a cold front sweeps through Georgia. The front will announce it presence via the arrival of gusty northwest winds this afternoon. Sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph are expected along with peak wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range. Drier air will move in behind the front and this will bring any lingering precipitation in central Georgia to an end this evening. By Saturday morning a cooler and drier airmass should be firmly in place across the Southeast. This will set the region up for a very pleasant start to the weekend, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and low humidity (35-45%). Northwest winds should continue in the region on Saturday. While the winds will decline some compared to today, peak gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range are still anticipated in the afternoon. Albright && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Key Messages: - Quiet weather will continue in the region Sunday and Monday. - Two additional rounds of widespread rainfall are probable in Georgia between Tuesday and next weekend. The Outlook for Next Week: Next week should begin with a surface high and upper level ridging over the Southeast. Due to this pattern Sunday and Monday should feature dry weather and average to slightly below average high temperatures. Atlanta can expect a high in the upper 70s on Sunday and a high near 80 on Monday. Looking further into the upcoming week it looks like the Southeast will be in for at least two more rounds of widespread rainfall. Both the GEFS and EPS show consistent signals for a round of rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday followed by a second round of precipitation next weekend. The time of year and strength of the troughs driving both rounds of precipitation suggest at least some potential for stronger thunderstorms with both events. Some localized flooding concerns could also develop by next weekend, and it is worth noting that multiple GEFS and EPS members are indicating rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with second potential rain event. Albright && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A mix of IFR, MVFR and VFR conditions will occur over the region through 18Z today. These conditions will primarily be driven by low ceilings, though scattered showers and thunderstorms will produce reduced visibilities at times in central Georgia. Showers and thunderstorms should mostly end by 16Z today, though isolated showers could pop up between 20Z today and 01Z Saturday in east central Georgia. The ongoing variable winds in the region should become more consistent west to northwest winds after 16Z today. Peak gusts in the 25 to 35 kt range are expected between 17Z today and 01Z Saturday. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Overall confidence in the KATL TAF is moderate. Moderate confidence in the wind forecast. High confidence in the visibility and precipitation forecast. Low confidence in the ceiling forecast between 12Z and 16Z today. Albright && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 52 77 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 55 77 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 46 70 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 50 77 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 57 80 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 53 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 56 79 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 50 77 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 53 77 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 59 79 60 83 / 10 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....Albright AVIATION...Albright