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000
FXUS63 KFGF 250836
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
336 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Near - critical fire weather conditions are possible this
afternoon.

2) Wet weekend ahead, with probabilities for greater than half an
inch of precipitation around 50 - 70% south of HWY - 2.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Only notable items of satellite this morning are clouds associated
with light rain in the southern Red River Valley and SE ND.
Precipitation hasn`t yet been reported on surface observations,
probably due to a dry layer aloft the rain will have to overcome.

Synoptically, UL ridging will push eastward, allowing southwest flow
to dominate into the weekend. This will make way for our Friday
system to propagate into the area. Another ejecting low will follow
Sunday into Monday, but precip totals look to be less with that
system. Southwest flow will stick around after that into mid-week,
allowing a active pattern to possibly set up.

Today will be the last dry day in the spell before the first low
pressure system arrives. As the low approaches, it squeezes the air
in between itself and the exiting surface high, which will result in
some breezy conditions. Winds today look to be sustained around 25
MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH in some locations, but most will remain
around 35 MPH. Not very confident in how well we will mix today with
cloud cover expected to increase as the low gets closer, so winds
could be less if we don`t mix as well. As a result of the winds and
RHs around 30%, near-critical fire weather conditions will be
possible today. If mixing is particularly robust, then RHs could be
less, but not seeing a solution where they reach Red Flag criteria.

Attention turns to the Low pressure system ejecting out of the SW
into tonight. Precipitation chances will increase by late evening,
and last through early Sunday. While probabilities for greater than
half an inch of precip are around 50 - 70%, probabilities for an
inch or more are only about 20% in a narrow tongue in the Red River
Valley extending north to Traill county. Higher amounts of rain
(like that 1") are mainly dependent upon the track of the low and
any thunderstorms embedded in the showers (which will be dependent
on MUCAPE in the area, which doesn`t look to be more than 100-150
J/kg currently). Will continue to monitor as the system sets up. The
Sunday/Monday system has much lower probabilities for meaningful
rainfall, with most likely amounts looking to be around half an
inch.

After a rainy weekend, temperatures will rebound back into the 60s
and 70s for highs by mid-week, with lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period.

Light winds under 10 kt tonight will markedly increase between
12Z-15Z as strong southerly winds aloft move over eastern ND
into western MN. These south winds forecast to be 17-27kt
gusting 25-35kt (highest at GFK and FAR) will persist through
much of the day Thursday. Some brief gusts to 40kt are possible
(60% chance) at GFK and FAR, more likely to occur during the
afternoon hours. Low level wind shear is also forecast at DVL
between 10Z-13Z.

Winds will decrease some near and just after 00Z, but still
remain above 15kt. Scattered rain showers start to move into
North Dakota and west-central Minnesota between 00Z-06Z. This
will eventually bring lowered CIGs into the MVFR to IFR
categories, although confidence is not high in this occurring
over any TAF sites before 06Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...CJ