National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 220332
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
832 PM MST Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions continue through the middle of
the week. Cooler, more unsettled conditions return for the second
half of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Cloud cover remains over much of the higher terrain,
likely resulting in isolated virga. Clouds are expected to
diminish overnight, with another warm/mostly sunny day in store
for Monday. The forecast remains largely on track, so no evening
updates were made.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /419 PM MST/...The pattern of warm and dry conditions will continue
through the next few days. Warm temperatures are expected through
at least Tuesday with afternoon breezes each day. Some clouds will
develop each day, especially across the higher terrain. But
overall it will continue to be beautiful spring weather across the
high country.

Wednesday will be the last warm day of this great stretch of
weather as we will start to see a more unsettled pattern across
the region.

A low pressure over the Pacific will move towards the southern
California coast, moving through Arizona Thursday. Ahead of the
low, we will see the pressure gradient start to tighten up with
an increase in winds across the region. As the low crosses the
area, temperatures will start to fall and what was once warm will
be decidedly much cooler. On average, temperatures will drop
20-30 degrees by the time we reach the weekend. Additionally,
while there is some moisture advecting into the area, it looks
pretty limited. There will be some chances for some showers to
develop on Thursday but much more likely that it ends up being
more like sprinkles with much of the region remaining dry.

While this first low doesn`t look to be all that impactful, there
is a secondary trough that will arrive on Saturday. This trough
looks to be a bit more promising with stronger winds and better
chances for showers across the region.

Overall, the second half of the weak looks windy, colder, and
generally unsettled. Something to keep an eye on as we head
through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 22/00Z through Tuesday 23/00Z...VFR conditions
will persist. Light and variable winds overnight will become
southwest at 10-20 kts Monday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 23/00Z through Thursday 25/00Z...VFR conditions
will continue. Daytime southwest surface winds at 10-20 kts
gusting 20-30 kts will become light each evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Warm and dry. Afternoon
southwest winds at 10-20 mph gusting to around 25 mph. Minimum
relative humidity values ranging from 10-20 percent.

Wednesday through Friday...Winds are forecast to strengthen. Look
for daytime southwest winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph.
Mainly dry but a slight chance of showers arrives Thursday. Wetting
rains are unlikely. Turning cooler.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny/Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff