Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 271822
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
122 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Rest of Today Through Thursday/

Another cool day has unfolded across North and Central Texas with
highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s. A few locations across
our southwestern counties may hit the 70 degree mark where the
best southerly flow resides. This is out ahead of a surface low
that is currently moving across the Hill Country where the
development of a growing cumulus field can be seen on satellite.
This feature will be the main driving force for the development of
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through
the afternoon and evening hours. The latest hi-res guidance has
trended the development of these storms to the southwest,
remaining mostly confined to portions of Central Texas. There is a
low chance for these to skirt through portions of the Metroplex.

While the environment is not overly favorable for strong to
severe thunderstorms, the potential is not zero. Marginal
instability along with steep mid-level lapse rates and decent mid-
level moisture ahead of a surface low will lead to high base/low
topped thunderstorms that may organize just enough to have a hail
and damaging wind threat associated with them. The best window of
opportunity will be between 4 PM to 10 PM across Central Texas.
These storms will likely weaken just after sunset as daytime
heating subsides and the surface low pushes east.

Temperatures overnight will fall into the upper 30s to mid 40s
across North and Central Texas, with highs tomorrow slightly
warmer in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s. This is a result of
winds becoming southerly across the region once again.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 343 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/
Update:
/Friday & This Weekend Into Early Next Week/

Nothing to really add to the previous long term discussion below
other than low (20%-30%) for showers and elevated thunderstorms
will continue primarily east of I-35 thanks to a broad, positive-
tilted longwave trough remaining near and west of our forecast
areas.

In addition, some very valuable information at the end of this
last discussion below with regard to our expected solar eclipse
that occurs in about 12 days from now on Monday, April 8th 2024.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Any ongoing showers and storms mentioned in the short term
discussion will come to an end Wednesday night, with rain-free
conditions expected Thursday through the weekend. Broad upper-
level ridging will expand across the Central U.S. and bring
warming temperatures into the weekend. Thursday`s highs will still
be mild however, reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s as southerly
flow gradually returns to the area. Widespread readings in the
70s Friday will then shift to the 80s Saturday through Monday as
ridging remains overhead. Other than the warming trend, a tightened
surface pressure gradient Friday will result in breezy conditions.

An upper level low will drop southward along the West Coast late in
the weekend and enter the Desert Southwest early next week. This
will bring the region`s next chance for showers and storms late
Monday into early Tuesday, as a strong cold front moves through.

Looking Ahead to the Eclipse:
/Week after Next/

The April 8th Total Solar Eclipse is within range of extended
forecast guidance as we`re now less than two weeks out. It`s
important to note that this is still outside of the range of our
official public forecast, and using this guidance to pin down a
cloud cover forecast for one specific hour this far out is not
useful as model guidance just isn`t that skillful. Keep in mind
ensembles are also under dispersed, so these probabilities aren`t
the same as actual Vegas odds as they aren`t calibrated. HOWEVER,
we can glean some sort of information from looking at ensemble
guidance:

-- 40-60% of the GEFS/GEPS members depict less than 25 percent
  cloud cover (e.g., sunny to mostly sunny skies) at the time of
  the eclipse across North & Central Texas. However, ~20% of the
  members also show greater than 80% mean cloud cover at this same
  time.

-- April in Texas is no stranger to weather systems. The key
  will be watching to see if the systems are timed well enough to
  allow for good viewing conditions on April 8th. Currently, most
  members show a system will be exiting to the east with 20-40% of
  all ensemble members (CMC/GEPS/GEFS) showing precipitation
  around eclipse time across the region.

Bottom Line: While most members favor good viewing conditions at
this point, the timing of the systems will likely be the main
thing to watch as we approach the eclipse, and there are still
many unknowns this far out.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

Concerns...Low chance (~5%) for isolated storms across the D10.

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon and into the
evening hours for all TAF sites. Winds are easterly across the
region, becoming more northeasterly as we move through the
overnight hours. The only major change was the removal of VCTS
from the D10 TAFs as the latest hi-res guidance has trended the
development of thunderstorms further to the southwest. That being
said, there is a low chance for an isolated storm or two to push
through portions of the D10 later this evening, but confidence is
not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  45  71  54  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
Waco                67  44  73  52  76 /  20  30   0   0   0
Paris               62  39  68  50  75 /   5   5   0   0   0
Denton              65  40  70  53  75 /  10  10   0   0   0
McKinney            64  41  70  53  74 /  10  10   0   0   0
Dallas              66  45  71  55  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
Terrell             64  42  70  53  75 /   5  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           67  45  72  54  76 /   5  20   0   0   0
Temple              69  45  74  53  77 /  30  30   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       68  41  72  52  77 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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