252
FXUS63 KGLD 060852
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
252 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from mid-
  morning Monday through early afternoon. Large hail and gusty
  winds will be the main concerns, although an isolated tornado
  cannot be entirely ruled out.

- Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected along/south of
  Interstate 70 and west of Highway 83 today and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 259 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Visible satellite imagery shows cloud cover continues over most of
the Goodland CWA this afternoon.  There is some clearing occurring
in the far western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in
Colorado.  Expect at least partial cloud cover to continue for most
locations for the rest of this afternoon and into tonight.

Heading into Monday, a boundary will move across the region during
the morning hours.  There is concern that thunderstorms will
initiate along the boundary around mid-morning, moving to the east
through early afternoon.  A few strong to severe thunderstorms will
be possible with large hail and damaging wind being the main
concerns with any storms.  An isolated tornado cannot be entirely
ruled out.  For most areas, storms should be out of the area by
around 12pm MDT.  A few lingering showers/storms may be possible
into the early afternoon for areas along and east of a line from
McCook to Morland.

Gusty winds and low relative humidity values will be a concern from
mid-morning Monday through Monday evening.  Southeasterly winds will
shift to the west behind the boundary, with winds gusting as high as
45 MPH.  Minimum relative humidity values may fall as low as 10
percent in the afternoon.  A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado, and Wallace, Greeley,
Wichita, and Logan counties in Kansas for Monday.  Fire weather
concerns will lessen as RH values improve around sunset.  Although
limited, a little bit of blowing dust may also be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

Long range guidance suggests that a broad upper level low over
the north-central CONUS (mid-week) will fracture/divide into
two distinct features (late this week), the eastern of which
will progress eastward across the Great Lakes/New England and
the western of which will retrograde WSW to the 4-Corners/
Intermountain West.. beneath an amplifying upper level ridge
along the Pacific Coast. Model solutions diverge considerably
thereafter, over the weekend. When synoptic pattern complexity
increases.. forecast confidence decreases. With the above in
mind, steering the forecast toward climatology appears to be
the most prudent course of action.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 930 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Not a whole lot of change from 00z taf issuance.

KGLD...sub VFR cigs are expected from taf issuance through 13z
with winds from the south gusting to around 40kts. Some light
drizzle will be possible which may produce some light reductions
in visibility. From 14z-01z, southwesterly winds gusting to
40kts in the morning slowly veer to the west, gusting to similar
speeds. After 02z, west winds subside below 12kts. Blowing dust
may impact the terminal for an hour or so either side of 15z
per local blowing dust research findings using the hourly GFS
data. After about 16z, the potential narrow plume shifts south
and out of the county. For now, have left blowing dust out of
the taf given the potential plume being just south of the
terminal. If the plume does move over the terminal, research
findings show cigs in 1500-2500 ft range (sub VFR) with reduced
visibilities (also sub VFR).

KMCK...sub VFR cigs are expected from taf issuance through 15z
with light drizzle possible. Winds will be from the south to
southeast, gusting up to 35kts. From 16z-18z, cigs should
improve as winds veer to the southwest, gusting up to 35kts. Its
at this time there is a possibility of thunderstorms moving
through the terminal, some of which could be severe. From
19z-02z, VFR conditions continue with winds veering to the west,
gusting up to 35kts. After 03z, winds subside below 12kts while
backing to the southwest.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8
    PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ013-027-028-041-042.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ253-254.
     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for COZ254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...99