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000
FXUS62 KGSP 250558
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
158 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front should stall to our south tonight and Thursday as
high pressure moves past to our north. The front will move back
northward on Friday and wash out across our area, but giving us a
cooler day because of clouds and a few showers. After that, expect a
warming trend through the weekend and into next week as high
pressure takes over.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Thursday: Front has completed a full fropa
across the area. Seeing areas of dense fog in Chester, S York,
and SW Union County (NC), where the heaviest rain developed
earlier. Included low vsbys in the sensible weather at this
time, but the expectation is for this fog to diminish over the
next few hours as dry air continues to filter in behind the
front. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

Winds have already diminished and will remain light for all
but some ridge tops. Still expect some mountain valley fog before
daybreak. Low temperatures will be similar to this morning with low
40s to low 50s. Slightly cooler low-level temperatures advect in by
Thursday, but mostly sunny skies and at least some degree of
downsloping flow should allow for a nice day with highs in the low
to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 PM Wednesday: Mid level ridging will build across the
region through the short range period, as surface high pressure
centered over the Northeast will extend south to the east of the
Appalachians. Low pressure will lift northward across the Plains.

Weak warm advection from the Plains system will combine with
easterly low level flow associated with the surface high to create
plenty of clouds Thursday night through Friday night. A few showers
are possible through these periods, but amounts will be very light.
Plenty of clouds will linger into Saturday, but there should be more
breaks in the clouds and less shower activity.

Due to the clouds and easterly flow, highs will be below climo on
Friday, then climbing back to near climo on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 PM Wednesday: The mid level ridging will remain in place
for Sunday and Monday leading to increasing sunshine and
temperatures warming above climo. A trof in the mid level flow will
break down the ridge by Tuesday and bring the chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the area. Overall, a quiet period is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the
majority of the forecast period. The cold front has sagged south of
the terminals with winds going light. Winds have shifted to a north-
northeasterly component for the TAF sites, with KAVL maintaining a
north-northwesterly wind. Skies are mostly clear for most, but
mountain valley fog will be possible overnight, but should stay away
from KAVL. Mostly sunny skies will be in store Thursday with winds
turning the dial to a south-southeasterly component by peak heating
as the direction becomes influenced by surface high over the
Northeast. The front will stall south of the area and act as a wedge
boundary. This would set the stage for an increase in clouds
overnight Thursday, with possible restrictions at the NC TAF sites
by daybreak Friday and in all of the Upstate sites at or just after
daybreak Friday. Advertising MVFR at the moment for KCLT, but could
be lowered to IFR in the 12Z TAF update with a mention at all
terminals.

Outlook: Rain and associated restrictions develop Friday as a warm
front lifts north across the area. Clouds linger Saturday, along
with the potential for isolated mountain convection which lingers
into Monday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC/RWH/TW
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...CAC